Good morning on this still-summery Tuesday.
And welcome back.
Over the next two weeks, New York Today will be asking local reporters for The New York Times to give us a preview of some of the most compelling issues they’re covering as we head into the fall.
First up, Shane Goldmacher, chief political correspondent for the Metro Desk, who got us up to speed on what to watch during “an intense 10-day sprint” until the primary on Sept. 13, perhaps the most decisive day on the fall political calendar.
“All across the country, Democrats are fighting over what the future of their party looks like, and now it’s New York’s turn,” Mr. Goldmacher said.
As is often the case in New York, which is heavily Democratic, the primary could be tantamount to the entire election.
Here’s what you need to know about key races.
Governor:
“Andrew Cuomo has been in office for 12 years and he is selling himself on his experience,” Mr. Goldmacher said. “He’s the guy to take on Trump. Well, Cynthia Nixon says it’s time to blow up that argument — and that all that really matters now is how progressive you are.”
He pointed out that the candidates have visibly different strategies for this final push: Ms. Nixon is crisscrossing the state campaigning and holding events, and Mr. Cuomo is keeping a lower profile (except for big, official announcements). Instead, Mr. Cuomo is relying on a heavy circulation of campaign mailings and television ads.
“Their one debate last week seemed to bring an entire new wave of attention to the race,” he said.
Mr. Cuomo has a 30-point lead over Ms. Nixon in every poll, but in several races this year, the polls have been notably wrong.
In the case of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the final poll showed her challenger, Representative Joseph Crowley, up by 36 percentage points; he lost by 15, a swing of 51 points. More recently, in Florida, polls did not predict the victory of the Democratic nominee for governor, Andrew Gillum.
Mr. Goldmacher told us: “Here’s something the primary will test: Was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shock win in June an aberration? Or was it — and the polling misfire by Crowley, who by the way used one of the same pollsters as Cuomo — a sign of what’s to come?”
Attorney General:
The Democratic contenders for attorney general — who are seeking to formally replace the disgraced Eric T. Schneiderman — are Letitia James, Sean Patrick Maloney, Leecia Eve and Zephyr Teachout.
Ms. James, the New York City public advocate, is backed by the Democratic Party in New York.
“She has widely been seen as the front-runner,” Mr. Goldmacher said, “but in a televised debate last week, everyone was focused on Zephyr Teachout, who won the endorsement of The New York Times’s editorial board and seems to have some new energy in her campaign.”
He added: “The attorney general’s race is getting less attention, but don’t forget that this is one of the single races of most interest to President Trump in the country because of all the investigation potential into his businesses and foundation.”
Lieutenant Governor:
Kathy Hochul is the lieutenant governor, and her Democratic challenger is Jumaane Williams.
“She has had more than a million dollars…
