The “Yellow Vests” movement in France was unexpected. It began as a spontaneous discontent triggered by a new tax on fuel. Various fears and resentments suddenly converged on a series of disparate social demands, cemented by distrust of Emmanuel Macron, perceived as the president of the wealthy. At first glance, it looked like French politics as usual. Since 1995, all French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande) endured a dramatic drop in popularity within six months of their election. Their much-anticipated reforms were wrecked by leftist social movements, divisions within their majority in Parliament, and finally bad luck, meaning depressed economic conditions.
After his unexpected election, Macron seemed in a good position to avoid the fate of his predecessors. Had he not put an end to the rise of populism in Europe? Had he not a clear mandate and the means and personal energy to implement his program of ambitious reforms? It seemed that not only France but also the EU had found a strong new leader. Despite the sophistry of his adversaries about low turnout, Macron’s election victory in 2017 was as impressive, if not more, than the mandates won by his predecessors: Polls showed that he would have won against all his challengers at the second turn, and the victory of his party in Parliament confirmed his high popularity.
Yet, 18 months later, Macron faces not only a violent rejection of his policies, but an even more violent rejection of his person. “Macron get out!” was the main slogan of the Yellow Vests. Despite the weakening of the movement and 10.3 billion euros worth of new welfare expenditures—jeopardizing the economic recovery of France and of the eurozone—disorders and urban violence are persisting. Macron and, beyond him, every politician and any mode of political representation, are now being targeted ever more aggressively.
The Yellow Vests claim to be the people; they express the popular will directly. For them, only a filterless expression is legitimate. Their anger is so deep that it is not negotiable and it needs no further justification. Repeated declarations by Macron and his ministers acknowledging that “your anger is right” have no effect, except to further discredit the political class as a whole.
Before the violent demonstration of Dec. 1, 2018, on the Champs Elysées, one could wonder about the nature of the Yellow Vests movement, given its spontaneous and “apolitical” appearance. The media were complacent, intellectuals divided: Was it a democratic insurrection against oligarchy or a populist revolt seeking some new form of authoritarianism? Was it a protest of the poorest people against growing inequalities, or of the lower middle class of neglected rural territories against “wired” cities? The last battle of endangered professions and regions unable to find their place in the new digital-robotic economy? An expression of concern about painful economic reforms to come, notably on pensions? Such social and political factors may be at play, but there is more and, unfortunately, it is not reassuring.
First, the urban violence, insults, and vandalism that characterized the Yellow Vests demonstrations are not the collateral damage of a peaceful mobilization. Yellow Vests leaders cynically admit this fact in their oft-repeated media slogans: “We firmly condemn violence, but we have to admit that it is efficient.” Indeed, their violence was instrumental in the retreat of the government.
Instead of organizing and channelling their demonstrations, Yellow Vests stick to a strategy of unpredictable gatherings and do nothing to help the police in preventing vandalism and violence. This guerrilla strategy is by no means spontaneous. It requires careful organization. After six weeks, the spontaneity of the movement, maybe genuine at the beginning, has become a myth: Leaders and spokesmen have emerged on Facebook, all sticking to the same talking points, including the insistence on the “horizontality” of a movement without leaders, and the denial of their own accountability: “I speak only for myself, others may think differently, and I will follow them.” “I am satisfied with the measures announced by the government, but since my fellow men aren’t,” etc. etc.
Second, anger against Macron has evolved into a watchword that overshadows all other demands: the “Citizen’s Initiative Referendum.” It sounds like participatory democracy, but it is not. The main point of these referendums, it has emerged, is not to decide policy questions but to nullify elected representatives. Yellow Vests want the referendum to be free from any legal or constitutional checks (for instance if it contradicts human rights or international obligations). It is not meant to empower civil society, but to give unlimited force to individual resentments, and to surmount the political process in its entirety. While Yellow Vests stay programmatically “apolitical,” in Facebook groups they…
