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Leo Varadkar’s 2018: Irish politics held prisoner by Brexit

Some in Fianna Fáil believe the longer Varadkar is in office, the more he will be damaged At the beginning of the year, the prospects for the Government surviving the year seemed slim. After the resignation of Frances Fitzgerald, relations between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – and personally between Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin – were poor. Varadkar made a public appeal to Martin to open negotiations on a renewal of the confidence and supply agreement, also telling his Cabinet at a special meeting at Derrynane House, Co Kerry, that he would seek a two-year extension of the deal. Except that the time had already run out for Varadkar. And even if there was time, he couldn’t viably call an election – right at the time of maximum sensitivity in the Brexit negotiations – and claim it was because he needed stability during the Brexit negotiations. His polling numbers are good, if not as good as many think. There is a strong view among some in Fianna Fáil that the longer Varadkar is in office, the more he will be damaged and the easier he will be to beat. At the end of the year, Brexit continues to overshadow all. Varadkar and Simon Coveney have run a hard line on Brexit, securing consistent and strong backing for Ireland’s needs and positions during the Brexit process and negotiations. The outcome of that struggle in UK politics will dominate Varadkar’s 2019.