Some in Fianna Fáil believe the longer Varadkar is in office, the more he will be damaged
At the beginning of the year, the prospects for the Government surviving the year seemed slim.
After the resignation of Frances Fitzgerald, relations between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – and personally between Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin – were poor. And Fine Gael, fuelled by a Brexity boost in the opinion polls and revelling in Varadkar’s novelty as a national leader, felt it had nothing to fear from a general election. Were it not for the commitment to hold an abortion referendum, there would probably have been an election in the first half of the year.
By the time “normal” politics emerged months later in the wake of a historic landslide in favour of repeal, Varadkar was already looking towards an election. Easier said than done, however.
Varadkar made a public appeal to Martin to open negotiations on a renewal of the confidence and supply agreement, also telling his Cabinet at a special meeting at Derrynane House, Co Kerry, that he would seek a two-year extension of the deal. The two men met in Killarney, where Martin sweetly informed the Taoiseach that the deal had another budget to run, and afterwards they should review the deal – as its text provided for. Then they could figure out if an extension was warranted.
Varadkar continued to push however, while privately ordering that preparations for an autumn general election be stepped up. His lieutenants briefed widely that an autumn election could be on the cards.
Except that the time had already run out for Varadkar. When the Dáil returned, the Budget process was soon in full swing. Once that was done, Brexit took over. The truth was that Varadkar had already missed the boat for an early election. And even if there was time, he couldn’t viably call an election – right at the time of maximum sensitivity in the Brexit negotiations – and claim it was because he needed stability during the Brexit negotiations. It took him some time to admit that to himself and everyone else.
As the British position unravelled spectacularly at year’s end, Martin unilaterally declared – after weeks of pretty pointless reviewing of the confidence and supply agreement – that he would give the Taoiseach another year in office, in the national interest, of course.
That he also judged it in Fianna Fáil’s interest was hardly unnoticed. But if Varadkar was outmanoeuvred a little by the Fianna Fáil leader, he has ended up with another year…
