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Politics Is Now a Risk in Sweden, $10 Billion Fund Manager Warns

Significant risk for dead-lock after Swedish election: Ohman Sees lowest expected market return since turn of millennium Investors typically ignore Swedish politics. But this year’s general election could be different, according to Swedish asset manager Ohman Funds. All polls indicate that none of the two major blocs will emerge with a majority and there’s little appetite to reach across the aisle among the biggest political parties. “It seems impossible to form a new Swedish majority government as things stand currently,” said Pablo Bernengo, chief executive officer at Ohman Funds in Stockholm “The risk for a dead-lock is significant.” And political turmoil at this late stage of a stock rally and economic upswing could have dire consequences, according to Bernengo. The stakes are high with the potential for a continued downturn in the Swedish housing market and slowing growth. The central bank could at the same time be forced into tightening as inflation, which lags growth, finally picks up. But his main scenario for now is that a compromise will be reached on a minority government. Investors should therefore adjust their expectations, said Jamal Abida Norling, Ohman’s chief investment officer, whose Sweden Micro Cap fund was awarded awarded best small-cap fund by Morningstar based on its result over the past 5 years. “It’s significantly lower compared to three-four years ago.” Ohman went to neutral in emerging market stocks during the fall after holding an overweight for almost 18 months. The asset manager is overweight credits within fixed income and also prefers a lower duration.