Tag: Uncertainty

It found that 83% of people were sick of seeing Brexit on the news every day, 64% believed the attendant anxiety was bad for people’s mental health, and more than two-thirds felt Brexit became more confusing the more they heard about it. Asked whether or not they agreed with the statement “I’m not impressed with what either the Conservative party or the Labour party have been doing on Brexit”, 84% of respondents concurred. Seventy per cent said a general election “would not resolve anything”. There was greater division on the way forward: 39% said the UK should cancel Brexit and 46% backed a departure with no deal. Almost three years on from the EU referendum, 30% of people said they still firmly backed Brexit and 34% were equally strongly against the idea. When asked to choose which out of more than a dozen politicians and institutions they would consider most likely to deliver a good outcome on Brexit, “none of these” was the clear winner on 28%. Theresa May was next, on 16%, ahead of Jeremy Corbyn on 9% and Boris Johnson on 5%. Why there’s nothing to fear from putting Brexit to the people – again | Bobby McDonagh Read more The findings are not overly cheering for the prime minister but are even less so for Corbyn. While 51% of people said May seemed concerned more with party politics than the national interest, 70% said the same of the Labour leader. Focus groups conducted as part of the research uncovered some grudging admiration for May’s endless efforts over Brexit.

The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc rose on safe-haven buying on Monday as investors grappled with political instability in the United States and fears of a global economic slowdown. Trading volumes were thinning out with most global markets set to shut for Christmas, while Japan was closed on Monday for a holiday. They were up about 0.1 percent each on the dollar in early Asian trade. "The global equity market rout has been driving sentiment in the currency markets. The dollar, also sought out as a safe-haven, managed to hold up despite troubles of its own, including a partial U.S. government shutdown. In a widely expected move, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points last week for its fourth hike of the year, underpinned by a relatively robust U.S. economy compared with its peers elsewhere. However, with the Fed signalling "some further gradual" rate hikes despite global risks, traders are growing increasingly nervous that higher borrowing costs would hurt corporate profits and put the brakes on the world's biggest economy. The partial U.S. government shutdown which could continue to Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes and Democrats take over the House of Representatives, has also contributed to the souring of risk sentiment. The heightened fears over slowing global growth benefited the Japanese currency the most last week; it rose 2 percent on the U.S. dollar, and against the Australian dollar, the yen put on a sizable 4 percent. The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer of global risk appetite, changed hands at $0.7047, up slightly on its U.S. peer after sliding ore than 2 percent last week.

The pound has dropped to its lowest level for almost two years amid the growing risks to the British economy from political paralysis over Brexit and on a no-deal scenario. Theresa May’s decision to delay the parliamentary vote on her Brexit plan to avoid an embarrassing defeat for the government sent sterling tumbling by more than 1.3% against the dollar and by almost 1% against the euro on the foreign exchanges. Pound v dollar 10 December Value of £1 in US$ 1.275 1 3 1.270 2 1.265 4 1.260 1.255 1.250 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 1 10.30am Cabinet ministers put on standby for emergency conference call with the prime minister 2 11.30am Theresa May holds conference call with her cabinet to update them on the conclusions of her talks with EU leaders over the weekend 3 11.33am Reports emerge that the PM has called off tomorrow's vote 4 15.30pm Theresa May delivers statement to parliament and falling pound Value of £1 in US$ 1.275 15.30pm Theresa May delivers statement to parliament 11.33am Reports emerge that the PM has called off tomorrow's vote 1.270 1.265 1.260 10.30am Cabinet ministers put on standby for emergency conference call with the prime minister 11.30am Theresa May holds conference call with her cabinet to update them on the conclusions of her talks with EU leaders over the weekend 1.255 1.250 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm Guardian graphic. Source: Thomson Reuters Neil Wilson, the chief market analyst at the financial trading company Markets.com, said the pound had experienced one of its worst [days] since the 2016 referendum, adding that “the government [had] left investors completely in the dark about what happens next”. Economists at the Capital Economics consultancy said the chances of May’s deal passing the parliamentary vote in future, whenever it was held, was about 40%, with similar odds for a no-deal Brexit. It gave a 20% chance to a second referendum or a longer period of membership in the EU beyond the March 2019 deadline for article 50. Ruth Gregory, the senior UK economist at the firm, said the delay was “kicking the can further down the road”, adding: “We would not be surprised if Brexit uncertainty – which we estimate has knocked 0.5 percentage points off growth since the referendum – starts to weigh more heavily on the economy.” The FTSE 100 closed down by almost 60 points after a day of selling on financial markets as concerns grew over the US trade war with China. The index of leading UK companies usually rises when the pound is weak because many firms make large amounts of money in foreign currency. Thomas Cook, Stagecoach and Dominos Pizza were among the biggest fallers. Stephen Martin, the director general of the Institute of Directors, said: “Business leaders may understand the political reasons for the delay, but today’s announcement will be viewed by most as another extension of the frustration and uncertainty.”

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Scott Pruitt's tenure as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency ended with his resignation, but political experts in his home state of Oklahoma say he could continue his career in public office. The path could lead him back to Washington. But even with the bad publicity, Pruitt, 50, has widely been considered a potential candidate for either governor or U.S. Senate. Ethical charges aside, many Republicans in oil- and gas-dependent Oklahoma are focused more on what they consider his accomplishments at the EPA, said Oklahoma Republican Party Chairman Pam Pollard. As attorney general, Pruitt filed more than a dozen lawsuits against the agency President Donald Trump would later pick him to lead. Inhofe praised Pruitt in a statement Thursday for doing "great work" leading the agency. "I don't think that whatever things he may be accused of are things that most Oklahomans are going to hold against him if he decides to run for office in the future," Worthen said. Keith Gaddie, a professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma, disagreed. "His policy actions as administrator don't cost him in this state. ——— ——— This story has been corrected to show that university professor is not department chairman.

Despite market fears, there appears to be little appetite among Italians to leave the euro, as differences centre on the constraints of EU budget levels. Two possibilities: elections in September or a new political government The political environment in Italy is fast-changing. The second possible scenario is the formation of a new political government, possibly with the Five Star Movement and the League party; or a centre-right government led by the League (albeit an unlikely outcome without a snap election). Economic and market outlook: headwinds persist Even before recent events in Italy, the global markets were facing a few headwinds: The first is that leading economic indicators may be “rolling over” as the global economy moves into a late-cycle stage of growth. Yet we believe this mood would change before elections are held: given the market pressure that is severely hurting Italian assets, we suspect that Italian voters would think twice before voting against the euro. Investment implications: a summer of uncertainty We were already cautious on Italian government debt, and recent events have not changed our stance. We expect continued volatility over the summer, particularly given that the European Central Bank is set to begin withdrawing quantitative easing. The ensuing rise in interest rates would be a key issue for the affordability of Italian debt, and it could have global implications given that Italy is the third-largest borrower in the world. Italian equities were generally doing well before recent events as the country’s economic cycle improved and earnings growth looked positive. Investors should brace for additional market volatility, particularly given the potential for cyclical economic data to weaken.