Tag: The Cook Political Report

Citing health concerns, Republican Mark Harris said Tuesday that he won’t run in a new election for the 9th Congressional District. His announcement came five days after the State Board of Elections concluded a hearing into allegations of election fraud in the 9th District by calling for a new election. He hired a chief of staff and was assigned an office on Capitol Hill. Though Harris endorsed Republican Stony Rushing, a Union County commissioner, for the congressional seat Tuesday, his withdrawal opens the door to other Republicans. Mathew Ridenhour, a former Mecklenburg commissioner, said he’ll decide by next week. “General election candidates are chosen by the voters,” he said. During last week’s hearing, witnesses testified that Dowless illegally collected absentee ballots in 2018. First elected in 2002 as a Union County commissioner, Rushing served until 2006, then was elected again eight years later. ‘Stolen’ election Harris ended his time on the witness stand last week by saying that a new election should be called because of the evidence about corruption presented. But in the wake of the hearing, both parties accused the other of trying to steal the election.

Specifically, he singles out U.S. Rep.-elect Ross Spano as a freshman already drawing unwanted interest. “Incoming Republican Ross Spano (FL-15)’s acknowledgment that he may have taken illegal campaign loans could complicate his reelection bid,” Wasserman wrote. He referenced growing scrutiny around Spano’s admitted use of personal loans from associates to fund his Congressional ambitions this year. But for the moment, Cook Political Report’s forecast anticipates little difference in Florida two years from now as far as which party wins each House district. On the other side of the Cook chart, Florida’s 26th Congressional District gets listed as “Leans Democratic.” There, U.S. Rep.-elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo by less than 2 percent in November in Florida’s closest U.S. House race of the year. That seat has been volatile in the past decade. Curbelo held the seat for two terms after defeating Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia in 2014. Closer to the margins? Cook Political Report puts Florida’s 27th Congressional District, where Democratic U.S. Rep.-elect Donna Shalala beat Republican Maria Elvira Salazar by 6 percent for an open seat this year, as a “Likely Democratic” seat in 2020 as well. But every other seat in Florida gets ranked by the Cook team as a “Solid R” or “Solid D,” unlikely to change hands in two years barring a major change in the races.

“The law of unintended consequences acts again,” Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report said Friday about California’s decision to move its primary from June to March 3, 2020. That means early voting in the primary will begin Feb. 3, 2020 — the same day Iowa Democrats and Republicans have their precinct caucuses. “Will it dilute Iowa and New Hampshire?” he asked, referring to Iowa’s leadoff caucuses and New Hampshire’s leadoff primary. “If you’re going to have people, millions of people from coast to coast voting during the month of February, having a win, coming in first or second on Feb. 3, hey, that would be a pretty good thing to happen,” Cook said Friday during the taping of this weekend’s “Iowa Press” for Iowa Public Television. “So I don’t know that it erodes Iowa’s importance at all,” he said, adding that it likely will add a “weird dynamic” to the nomination process. Cook also predicted that Iowa is likely going to be in the “leans Republican” category going into 2020. However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities for Democrats. Voters in states characterized by small town, rural populations generally are trending more Republican, but Cook noted Iowa went from having three of four GOP U.S. House members to electing three Democratic representatives Nov. 6. He believes there is a realignment taking place in American politics as highly educated, high-income white voters move away from the Republican Party toward the Democratic Party. Cook doesn’t see that changing because of gerrymandering of congressional and state legislative districts or the new media culture that is “creating these ideological echo chambers on each side that is increasing the intensity of polarization to a point that we never saw back in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s.”

The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman joins MTP Daily to discuss the influx of women that could be elected to the House of Representatives in 2018 and its implications. » Subscribe to MSNBC: http://on.msnbc.com/SubscribeTomsnbc About: MSNBC is the premier destination…

Noel King talks to Dave Wasserman from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who discusses emerging trends in U.S. House races. KING: OK, all 435 House seats are up for election in November. WASSERMAN: And this is the record number of Republican open seats since at least 1930. Does it seem like the Republican Party to you is firmly in the grasp of President Trump? But many of them are deciding, why put up with the White House when I could leave for a different job? WASSERMAN: Yes. Democrats are funding their candidates to record levels in a lot of districts. But a lot of the Democrats who were open to voting for Trump in 2016 might be coming back into the Democratic fold. KING: Do voters tend to care about a government shutdown? And what we saw in 2016 - about 1 in every 5 voters disliked both parties' presidential candidates.

(CNN)The 2018 election is in 105 days. And the playing field continues to tilt toward Democrats. House seats in Democrats' favor -- eight of which went from a "leans Republican" rating to a "toss-up." That means that of the 36 races rated as "toss-ups" by the Center of Politics, 34 are held by Republicans. These moves are broadly consistent with how other non-partisan handicappers see the current state of play. The Cook Political Report carries 34 seats that are either "toss-ups" or lean toward party that doesn't currently control the seat; 31 of those are GOP districts. Inside Elections sees 26 Republican-held seats in serious jeopardy as compared to just 5 for Democrats. Even though President Donald Trump narrowly carried the seat in 2016, Lamb leads Rothfus 51% to 39% in a new Monmouth University poll. Add it all up -- and throw in the weight of history that suggests the President's party loses, on average, 33 seats in midterm elections -- and you have a devil's brew for Republicans. "Time is running out for Rs to turn things around."