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Economic growth tilts up in Q4 but politics loom

The country’s economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter than the previous three months, as local demand helped to offset a slide in exports, but Thailand's ongoing political divide is again threatening the economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.7% from a year ago, up from a revised 3.2% in the third quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said on Monday. GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous three months, higher than the 0.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. As exports wane, consumer spending and private investment are relative bright spots. Foreign direct investment as a share of the economy has declined during a more than decade-long power struggle between exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra and the military and royalist elite. Thaksin or his allies have won every election since 2001, only to be unseated by the courts or the military. The push to disband the Thaksin-linked Thai Raksa Chart Party over a failed bid to make Princess Ubolrat its prime ministerial candidate lays bare deep splits ahead of the election, the first since a coup in 2014. The unfolding drama is a reminder of Thailand’s cycle of polls, unrest and military intervention since 2006. Forecasters such as the World Bank expect rising private consumption and investment in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy to fill much of the gap from easing exports this year. The Bank of Thailand, which kept its benchmark rate unchanged this month after the first hike in seven years in December, has said its “accommodative” monetary policy would remain appropriate in the period ahead.

Moscow Skyscraper Talks Continued Through ‘the Day I Won,’ Trump Is Said to Acknowledge

Mr. Trump acknowledged discussing the Moscow project with Mr. Cohen in written responses that the president gave Mr. Mueller’s investigators days before they revealed that Mr. Cohen had pleaded guilty to lying to Congress. “There was no question that he was asked by the special counsel a question that said, ‘Did you talk to him before he testified?’” Mr. Giuliani said. “There were questions like, ‘Did you talk about the Moscow project with Michael Cohen?’ to which we answered yes.” Later in the day, Mr. Giuliani said he was merely allowing for the possibility that the president and Mr. Cohen could have discussed the Moscow project through the election but that no notes or call logs indicated specific conversations about Russia. He does remember, after that, fleeting conversations.” He added that he was trying to keep Mr. Trump from legal exposure if prosecutors uncover evidence of a conversation that the president has said he does not recall. Then, when Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty in November to lying to Congress about the Tower negotiations, the special counsel’s office revealed they extended at least until the middle of 2016. Michael T. Flynn, who would become President Trump’s first national security adviser, discussed sanctions with Mr. Kislyak numerous times in December 2016 as President Obama punished Russia for its campaign of election interference. For the Moscow project, Mr. Trump appears to have relied on Mr. Cohen to be the lead negotiator, and interviews, emails and court documents show that Mr. Cohen made a vigorous effort to try to get the blessing of the Kremlin for the project and even tried to arrange a trip to Moscow for Mr. Trump. Mr. Sater appears to have seen Mr. Shmykov as a conduit to get Russian government approval for the Trump project. Instead, he said, a Russian bank could provide the documents as part of “a business meeting not political.” The Moscow trip for Mr. Trump and Mr. Cohen never materialized, but court documents released in November as part of Mr. Cohen’s guilty plea showed that Mr. Cohen pursued the Moscow project well into 2016. Mr. Cohen told prosecutors for the special counsel that, during a January 2016 conversation, the Kremlin official “asked detailed questions and took notes, stating that she would follow up with others in Russia.” Mr. Cohen told prosecutors that the discussions lasted at least until June 14, 2016, when he met with Mr. Sater in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York and told him he would not be traveling to Russia “at that time,” according to court documents.