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No-deal Brexit would mean hard Irish border, EU confirms

The EU has put further pressure on the Brexit talks by confirming it will enforce a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event of a no-deal outcome, despite the risk this would pose to peace. But the Juncker’s spokesman said on Tuesday the likely enforcement of border checks could not be avoided. Of course we stand behind the Good Friday agreement, but that is what no-deal would entail.” How four different customs union options led to the Irish border backstop compromise customs union Red line for DUP No need for Irish border checks, but checks needed on goods moving between NI and the UK Border in the Irish sea UK-NI customs union (soft border) Red line for Brussels Lack of checks on Irish border leaves a back door to the EU single market UK-NI customs union (hard border) Red line for Dublin Hard border to preserve integrity of EU single market contravenes Good Friday agreement customs union Red line for DUP No need for Irish border checks, but checks needed on goods moving between NI and the UK UK-NI customs union (soft border) Red line for Brussels Lack of checks on Irish border leaves a back door to the EU single market UK-NI customs union (hard border) Red line for Dublin Hard border to preserve integrity of EU single market contravenes Good Friday agreement Border in the Irish sea Guardian graphic In the Irish parliament, the prime minister, Leo Varadkar, responded by insisting an arrangement similar to the Irish backstop would still have to be negotiated if the Brexit deal failed to get through the UK parliament. “We already have that agreement. It is the backstop … We have a proposal that does work. We are under no illusions about how challenging that would be.” The Democratic Unionist party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, dismissed the remarks by Juncker’s spokesman. “We have to be firm and flexible at the same time,” Verhofstadt told MEPs. But he ruled out any changes to the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop.

Cabinet at war after May’s humiliation in Salzburg

It had always been the EU’s intention to have something on paper from their side on the political declaration about the future trade deal by the October leaders’ summit, and now this could be billed as a counter-offer. So many of the problems facing May come back to the so-called backstop proposal put forward by the government in December, which effectively means that in the event of a no-deal exit there would be no change at the Irish border – even if that means keeping Northern Ireland effectively inside the EU’s single market and customs union. So what happens to May’s plans? Norway would be the one you could assemble a cross-party majority for.” But other Tories are pulling in the opposite direction. At a meeting of the cabinet on Monday some of the frustrations will be played out. “The problem with a Canada-style free trade agreement is it doesn’t solve the Irish border,” said one cabinet minister. Since Salzburg, figures on both the Remain and Leave wings of the party believe she now stands less chance of being the person who actually delivers Brexit – raising the prospect of a leadership election before 29 March. Downing Street sources deny such planning is taking place – but senior figures also agree that, should the Commons reject all options, anything could happen. They may, however, back a new referendum on the final Brexit deal. Most would probably back a second referendum in the event of no deal.

Stephen Collins: It has not been a great week for politics or the media

The contortions of Tánaiste Simon Coveney over abortion has sent a clear signal to the public that he doesn’t trust elected politicians to deal with the issue in the future. Coveney’s colleagues in Fine Gael are divided over whether his botched attempt to limit the capacity of any future Dáil to change the proposed abortion legislation stemmed from naivety or cynicism. Coveney has certainly given a weapon to those campaigning against the repeal of the Eighth Amendment At the beginning of the week he surprised people by announcing he was prepared to support it, but followed that up less than 24 hours later by suggesting there should be a requirement for a two-thirds majority in the Dáil for any future changes in the law. The other explanation, favoured by some in his party, is that he is trying to have it both ways, retaining his key role in Government while sending a signal to the electorate that he has reservations about the way the abortion issue is being handled. “We are having a free vote, and it will be carried one way or another, but he was not prepared to accept the consequences of going against his Cabinet colleagues.” Whatever his motivation, Coveney has certainly given a weapon to those campaigning against the repeal of the Eighth Amendment. If he doesn’t trust his colleagues in the Dáil not to introduce an even more liberal abortion regime than they are currently committed to, why should the public trust them? When the issue was raised in the Dáil there was uproarious laughter when the Taoiseach tried to explain that the comments were made at a private function As one of the people present at the event I have no doubt that Woulfe was treated shabbily, to put it as its mildest. However, during the off-the-record question-and-answer session that followed he made brief comments about a current Supreme Court case. Those comments were not used by any of the journalists present, but were subsequently published. When the issue was raised in the Dáil there was uproarious laughter when the Taoiseach tried to explain that the comments were made at a private function, and that Chatham House rules applied.