Tag: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Every sign is pointing to a Democratic wave in November
(CNN)The 2018 election is in 105 days.
And the playing field continues to tilt toward Democrats.
House seats in Democrats' favor -- eight of which went from a "leans Republican" rating to a "toss-up."
That means that of the 36 races rated as "toss-ups" by the Center of Politics, 34 are held by Republicans.
These moves are broadly consistent with how other non-partisan handicappers see the current state of play.
The Cook Political Report carries 34 seats that are either "toss-ups" or lean toward party that doesn't currently control the seat; 31 of those are GOP districts.
Inside Elections sees 26 Republican-held seats in serious jeopardy as compared to just 5 for Democrats.
Even though President Donald Trump narrowly carried the seat in 2016, Lamb leads Rothfus 51% to 39% in a new Monmouth University poll.
Add it all up -- and throw in the weight of history that suggests the President's party loses, on average, 33 seats in midterm elections -- and you have a devil's brew for Republicans. "Time is running out for Rs to turn things around."