Tag: Prediction

Will New Zealand politics in 2019 be characterised by policy substance or issues of leadership, personalities and political manoeuvrings? Every year the political journalists at Stuff put together a long list of predictions for the year. This year's list has the usual mix of policy and people-focused forecasts – see: 2019 Political predictions: Big calls for the year ahead. They include a rebrand for the Act Party (to become the "Freedom Party"); deputy Labour Party leader Kelvin Davis to be replaced, another government minister will go, and any proposed new capital gains tax will fail to get enough parliamentary support. On the left, David Cormack presents more of a wishlist than forecast, particularly on issues like climate change: "let's just do something. Some of the more interesting forecasts are: Phil Goff to win the Auckland mayoralty again, Simon Bridges to remain as National leader, National will continue to have no political party allies, and the New Conservative Party wins a bigger profile but doesn't actually take off. It sounds like you have Winston whispering in your ear; Bullies; KiwiBuild scandals; Brexit updates; The Prime Minister missing question time." The Spinoff surveyed fifteen political pundits on what the three biggest issues of the political year would be – see: 2019 in politics: What will the big issues be?. It's tax reform that many are pointing to as the big issue of 2019, and Peter Williams has an excellent discussion on this in his column, Tax set to become major political issue. Even if Peters does agree to all the proposed changes, which is very unlikely, Labour will have to take its new tax platform to the electorate in 2020.

Specifically, he singles out U.S. Rep.-elect Ross Spano as a freshman already drawing unwanted interest. “Incoming Republican Ross Spano (FL-15)’s acknowledgment that he may have taken illegal campaign loans could complicate his reelection bid,” Wasserman wrote. He referenced growing scrutiny around Spano’s admitted use of personal loans from associates to fund his Congressional ambitions this year. But for the moment, Cook Political Report’s forecast anticipates little difference in Florida two years from now as far as which party wins each House district. On the other side of the Cook chart, Florida’s 26th Congressional District gets listed as “Leans Democratic.” There, U.S. Rep.-elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo by less than 2 percent in November in Florida’s closest U.S. House race of the year. That seat has been volatile in the past decade. Curbelo held the seat for two terms after defeating Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia in 2014. Closer to the margins? Cook Political Report puts Florida’s 27th Congressional District, where Democratic U.S. Rep.-elect Donna Shalala beat Republican Maria Elvira Salazar by 6 percent for an open seat this year, as a “Likely Democratic” seat in 2020 as well. But every other seat in Florida gets ranked by the Cook team as a “Solid R” or “Solid D,” unlikely to change hands in two years barring a major change in the races.

“The Daily Show” host Trevor Noah took a playful jab Wednesday night at possible new House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday night for celebrating a “new day in America” on Election night, saying there’s nothing “new” about her being in charge, and instead labeling her probable leadership “new-ish.” Noah also joked about the “subpoena cannon” that could soon be loaded and aimed at President Trump, and how the next two years will be “subpoena hell” for the Commander in Chief, adding that subpoenas will be coming from everywhere, including his “KFC bucket.” Noah also expressed hope that the plan for Democrats isn’t to “investigate all of Trump’s thoughts,” advising that they “should be strategic” about what they investigate since the president and top Republicans have already accused Democrats of what has been coined as “presidential harassment.” To that, “The Daily Show” presented a workplace-like PSA spoof offering advice to House Democrats on the dos and don’ts of “presidential harassment.” “Daily Show” correspondent Michael Kosta told Democrats “don’t try to touch the president’s intimate areas” like his tax returns, which is a “private area that’s reserved for the president’s wife and his Russian investors” but “do look for cues that you are making the president uncomfortable,” noting to be observant of Trump’s body language to see if he’s being “protective of his space.” “Finally, do let him harass you. And believe me, he will harass you,” Kosta said to Democrats. “That may seem unfair, but think of the president as a stripper. He can touch you but you can’t touch him… And if you ever wonder, ‘should you impeach the president?,’ think of this helpful acronym; ‘N as in No.’ I guess we could’ve just said ‘no.’”

But there are no excuses in politics, nor in opinion columns, so we bravely make post-election predictions before the elections are tallied. Bold Prediction Number One. The other reason we predict Byers has won is early vote numbers. The early vote in Lucas County has been explosive so far, and given the political leanings of the County, most of those voters likely voted for the Democrat Byers. If, against these odds, Spang has won and will soon be sworn in as a Commissioner, she still might run for Mayor. If Byers won, Spang is certainly eyeing her next political move. The only factor leaning against a mayoral run is she wouldn’t be running from cover, since her council election would also be in twenty twenty-one. Bold Prediction Number Two. Huge voter turnout and higher than usual participation by Democrats has swept Lindsay Webb and Joe McNamara into office. Big Prediction Number Three.

J. Bruce Bugg, Texas Transportation Commission chairman, said the Texas Department of Transportation continues to focus funding on building highways because 93 percent of Texans drive, and they have to listen to population preferences. Texans are growing increasingly wary of expensive toll roads, so State Rep. Geanie Morrison, R-Victoria, said it is important to keep an open mind to alternative transportation, such as Texas Central Partner’s proposed high speed rail between Dallas and Houston. We can't say no to everything." “We need funding for transportation alternatives,” Nirenberg said. “There is an unsustainable push toward putting more concrete on our landscape.” Nirenberg said cities should respond to rising populations by creating more equitable and affordable housing. "Housing would be the basic building block of the economy, whether or not a family can afford a roof over their head so they can continue to ... have a job, get to where they want to go for school, afford groceries and medicine,” Nirenberg said. Austin Mayor Steve Adler said he often receives complaints about rising property taxes, which both state and local governments contribute to. As a result, Adler said local governments must be diligent in solving their own infrastructure issues through remaining property tax revenue and federal infrastructure grants. “People expect their city government to be able to perform,” Adler said. “I don’t know how much we can expect at the federal level because it’s so polarized there.” El Paso Mayor Dee Margo said goals of the federal and state governments tend to be incongruent with what local populations are asking for: safer cities, better infrastructure and increased quality of life.

To prove it, University of Chicago economists Marianne Bertrand and Emir Kamenica taught machines to guess a person’s income, political ideology, race, education and gender based on either their media habits, their consumer behavior, their social and political beliefs, and even how they spent their time. The surveys were tuned and filtered to be consistent over time, which allowed Bertrand and Kamenica to measure how America’s cultural divides have evolved. Differences in social attitudes between liberals and conservatives have been widened over time, Bertrand and Kamenica found. The gap in social attitudes between whites and nonwhites has fallen slightly, but the difference in consumer behavior between races has grown. Within the surveys they analyzed, social attitudes and media habits were almost as closely linked to race as consumer behavior was. “In 1976,” the authors write, “one could correctly predict race based on views towards government spending 74 percent of the time but by 2016 this number was down to 56 percent.” Attitudes toward police violence are only a few percentage points less effective in predicting high (in the top 25 percent) income than they are in predicting whiteness. By 2016, its place as the key signifier of the country’s economic and cultural divide had been taken by Apple’s iPhone — which the researchers found to be a much clearer signifier of income than the condiment had been. Yes, high-income households buy different things from low-income ones, and white Americans and black Americans watch different television programs and movies. “For the past 40 years, liberals and conservatives are disagreeing more each year. The General Social Survey, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, polls between 1,093 and 3,735 people per year on their attitudes toward myriad social issues such as trusting others, marijuana legalization, and approving of police striking a man.

Many political prognosticators were sorely humbled by the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Was it the hidden hand of Russia that tipped the scales and proved false the widespread expectation of a Clinton victory? Or were the prognosticators’ tools themselves faulty? But the challenge is accepting rolling registrations, so solvers can register at any point. In developing their solutions, solvers will have access to a continuously updated stream of data and forecasts produced by a crowd of human forecasters. To be eligible for a prize, the solver must provide a document detailing the solution method employed. That method can, however, include human judgments. According to IARPA, it is “interested in any method that advances the science of forecasting. This may include investigating how a combination of computer models and human judgments can be used to make accurate forecasts.” Solvers will be judged against each other, as well as against the results of a platform developed by an earlier challenge --the Hybrid Forecasting Competition. The HFC platform relies more heavily on human input and judgments than the methods being nurtured by Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge.

Take the city of Afrin. The Turks invaded the Syrian and largely Kurdish province just under two months ago. Their “Free Syrian Army” allies appeared to be nonexistent. Attlee won the 1945 election. Did the Kurds help Isis – they were talking to each other a few weeks earlier – strike a blow at Russia’s military operations in Syria? More important, however, was an incident in which the Kurds deliberately destroyed a military bridge constructed by the Russians over the Euphrates River for pro-Syrian militias. So much for my prediction to my Syrian friend. Or, more to the point, Egyptian elections. Will President Trump call Mr Sisi after his election victory to congratulate him? Funny, though, how Trump is becoming as predictable as an Arab election.