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Politics and poverty caused past conflicts in East Africa – not climate change

Look at the effects of the droughts in Syria, Darfur and Ethiopia. But is there any evidence for this link between climate change and conflict? The UN Refugee Agency reported that over 20 million people were displaced in Africa in 2016 – a third of the world’s total. East Africa is also a region with a long history of conflict and displacement. Our study suggests that the failure of political systems is the primary cause of conflict and displacement of large numbers of people. No single factor To test the climate-conflict hypothesis, we focused on the ten main countries in East Africa: Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Refugees make up a maximum of one third of the total people displaced in East Africa showing that most people are displaced in their own country. But in contrast to total displaced people and conflict, variations in refugee numbers, were found to be significantly linked to the incidence of severe regional droughts. So, even though displacement of people is linked to poverty and poor governance, it takes extreme weather events to force those people across international borders. Good governance is about protecting and looking after the most vulnerable people in society.