Tag: Paul Krishnamurty

Donald Trump won Ohio's 12th Congressional District by a 53/42 margin at the 2016 election and a defeat for his party could signal grave implications for his presidency. Again, our markets are currently calling it a roughly even split. In the absence of more numbers, bettors must decide whether that poll was an outlier or if the Democrat campaign is really cutting through. That said, this historically Republican district is not ideal Trump territory. A very different brand of moderate, inclusive conservatism, exemplified by popular governor and long-term Trump critic John Kasich, has been the key to winning those suburban voters. Latest polls for that once ultra-red district show Lamb double-digits ahead. Turnout is pivotal in these lesser elections and Democrats were predictably well ahead in terms of motivation according to that latest poll. I expect they will outperform the polls again here, aided by another suburban backlash against Trumpism, and that will be enough to at least get O'Connor very close to the winning line. I must reiterate that the better bet lies in the more popular House market. Back then, victory relied upon 'Blue Dog Democrats' just like Lamb and O'Connor taking traditionally red seats.