Thursday, April 25, 2024
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The political calculations of Sudan’s military regime

On April 11, after 30 years in power, the longstanding dictator, General Omar al-Bashir, was forced out of power by his right-hand man, defence minister and vice president, General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf. In the process, he managed to alienate a number of different factions within the Sudanese regime and important commanders within the security sector and the militias. As political ambitions clashed and outside forces intervened, General Ibn Auf took over with the intent of securing al-Bashir's exit and maintaining the status quo within the regime. While his resignation could be seen as another victory for Sudan's protest movement, the appointment of General al-Burhan as the head of the military council and General Hemedti as his deputy shows that the deep state and its foreign backers are by far not ready to give in to the demands of the protesters and allow for a smooth transition to civilian rule. The rise of General al-Burhan and General Hemedti General al-Burhan is the commander of the Sudanese ground forces and is believed to enjoy some popularity within the army's lower ranks. In the 2000s, he was also a mid-raking commander in the notorious Border Guards, a sub-group of the Janjaweed militia. The fact that the two generals in charge are linked by the major roles they have played in the wars in Darfur and Yemen is not coincidental. To date, it is not clear what the fate of figures of the old regime, including al-Bashir, will be and how the military council will deal with the deep state and its militias, security and financial arms. At the same time, tensions within the regime itself remain. The appointment of Hemedti, a commander of a militia who did not graduate from a Sudanese military academy to such a high position within the state is a shocking precedent and could play a detrimental role in Sudanese politics.