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The ex-factor in Bangladesh’s politics

There is no last word in politics. Politicians are rarely the ones to acknowledge this truth about their vocation and rarely, if at all, are they in the habit of being candid about it. Call it a case of unrequited love but clearly, they felt ignored, even betrayed, by their party which refused to honour their wish by nominating their chosen candidates. It's ironic that another nomination aspirant had to suffer rejection because of a former lawmaker from the rival Awami League who had defected to BNP about two weeks ago. The exes and other disillusioned party members and leaders continue to threaten the veneer of unity so vital to BNP's plan to make a political comeback. A very persuasive letter sent to the rebels by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the leader of Awami League, seeks to bring them back into the party fold with a promise to reward their loyalty although, on earlier occasions, she had taken a much tougher stance, threatening to expel them from the party should they continue to resist the call for realignment. On that day, according to a report, there were violent scuffles in at least 18 districts between the activists of Awami League and BNP. Two leaders of the ruling party also died on that day. The pre-poll violence will most likely continue in the coming days. In all likelihood, these exes and people behaving like exes may have an unpredictable impact on the results of the upcoming election.

Commentary: The bittersweet return of Anwar Ibrahim to Malaysian politics

This leads to an interesting question that has been the subject of much speculation in the Kuala Lumpur political class for the past few months: How will DSAI and incumbent Mahathir Mohamad co-exist in parliament? The Port Dickson by-election will be held merely five months after the recent general election. With Anwar back in parliament in October, some said it sure looks like the Anwar political dynasty is up and running. Part of the fear comes from their belief that Anwar will be a political liability among the rural Malay voters in the next general election. If PH does not keep the rural Malay vote, there is a real possibility that PH may be a one-term government. Rafizi Ramli, running for PKR’s deputy presidency post, openly claimed that he was running for the position to help Anwar clinch the pinnacle position of PM, and that if he loses the deputy presidency’s post to Azmin Ali, Minister for Economic Affairs and former Selangor chief minister, Anwar may not succeed Mahathir as PM - as Mahathir is said to be secretly backing Azmin to derail Anwar’s plans. Mahathir’s party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), only has 13 MPs. There is every reason to think that more UMNO MPs and state assemblymen will leave UMNO in the coming months. He cannot join the Cabinet unless his wife agrees to give up the seat of deputy PM to him. Under Malaysia’s political system, if anything happens to Mahathir, the incumbent Deputy PM takes over automatically.

Anwar Ibrahim, jailed Malaysian politician, will get royal pardon says Mahathir

Malaysia's king has agreed to pardon a politician whose case has gripped national politics for two decades, says new PM Mahathir Mohamad. Anwar Ibrahim, once considered a potential future leader, was jailed on charges of corruption and sodomy after falling out with the government. But Mr Mahathir, the PM under which he was first jailed, just won an election on a pledge of freeing him. He has indicated he will hand power to Anwar within a few years. "It is going to be a full pardon which of course means that he should not only be pardoned, he should be released immediately when he is pardoned. Both he and Anwar were formerly in power, as part of the BN, as prime minister and deputy respectively. Though sodomy is illegal in conservative Muslim Malaysia people are seldom convicted for it, so his case was widely seen as an attempt by the government to remove a political threat. In 2004 his conviction was overturned and he led the opposition to unprecedented gains - though not victory - in the 2008 and 2013 general elections. It remains unclear when the pardon will be issued, and Mr Mahathir warned his supporters that the process of Anwar becoming an MP again so he can take on the leadership "might take a long time". Mahathir Mohamad, the autocratic strongman who turned on his chosen successor Anwar Ibrahim, is now allied with him and seeking his release, having deposed Najib Razak, another one-time Mahathir protégé.

Loner to contender: the man who could pull a surprise in Sabah and upend...

Now, with images circulating that show thousands thronging to Warisan rallies across the state, Adnan, his boss Najib and others in BN appear to be taking notice. Victory for Shafie in Sabah could hand federal power to Mahathir – Warisan is informally aligned with the opposition – but also upend politics in the Bornean state, which BN’s stranglehold on power has given a reputation for being the bloc’s “fixed deposit”. Independent observers continue to view BN as a favourite to win nationwide and in Sabah, but Warisan insiders are adamant odds are in their favour. Speaking to This Week in Asia on the sidelines of a rally over the weekend, Shafie said while he hoped his ally Mahathir would take federal power, there would be no compromise on this central campaign promise if that happens. The pact saw Sabah form the Malaysian federation with the former state of Malaya, along with neighbouring Sarawak and Singapore. And while Sabah and Sarawak remained, complaints have persisted through the decades about the level of decision-making powers they have on key issues such as immigration, development expenditure and overlapping functions between state and federal agencies. Shukrol said Shafie’s charisma and oratory skills was one reason for the groundswell of support for Warisan. “Warisan has made great inroads and Shafie has charisma and very much reminds me of my husband,” she told This Week in Asia. Sabahan native and politics observer Oh Ei Sun said there was precedence of similar “populist-appearing” political movements triumphing in the state, referring to the 1980s ruling party Parti Bersatu Sabah (United Sabah Party). Asked about his chances, Shafie told This Week in Asia: “Let’s wait and see, the people will decide and I believe Sabahans are wise enough.”

Malaysia election: GE14 and the future of Malay politics in Malaysia

Malaysia's coming general election has long been expected to be explosive, given the tense build-up since the last polls in 2013 which saw the opposition making significant inroads. But if the results are not in Umno's favour, the opposition expects Datuk Seri Najib to draw his one last weapon: emergency rule. On the first flank, the Registrar of Societies (ROS) ordered the temporary suspension of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM aka Bersatu) - the Umno breakaway led by the man of the hour, Dr Mahathir - for not holding branch elections. Meanwhile, a second flank in the legal war was opened when the Group of 16 within Umno sued their party for failing to hold internal elections within the three-year limit imposed by the party's Constitution. But waiting for the court's ruling can be excruciating. Both BN and PH are Malay-led. But the flux in Malay politics is, by extension, throwing the whole political landscape into fluidity, given the central role of the Malay or Malay-dominant parties on both sides of the political divide. But if the results are not in Umno's favour, the opposition expects Datuk Seri Najib to draw his one last weapon: emergency rule. Dr Mahathir has even hinted of some "well-known BN leaders looking to join Pakatan". A PH government will provide a fresh change in leadership, governance and perhaps even approach to nation-building.