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Raw Politics in full: Brexit pressure from EU and far-right unity

Aa Aa Brexit prerequisite European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's request for a short Brexit delay on Wednesday. May had asked the European Union for an additional extension for her Brexit plan on Monday night. With the UK scheduled to leave the European Union on April 12, this dismissal from Juncker places additional pressure on the UK prime minister. 'Unwavering ally' Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Dublin on Thursday to discuss the potential of a no-deal Brexit. The two were scheduled to discuss the latest developments between the UK and the European Union. Varadkar has described Merkel as "a strong and unwavering ally of Ireland", and said he looks forward to continuing to maintain a strong relationship with the EU member in light of Brexit pressure. Uniting the right Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right Rassemblement National party, is attempting to establish an alliance between nationalist parties in the European Parliament. In an interview with Euronews, Le Pen said she hopes that nationalist parties will work to protect their nations, stop unfair international competition and eliminate free trade agreements. Election projects from the EU have predicted that far-right, populist parties will gain seats in May's European elections.

Europe’s view on Brexit: It’s the politics, stupid

Strangely enough, the imminent economic catastrophe of a no-deal Brexit only came second in the reasoning to political assessments. Hence Theresa May’s demand for a short extension until June 30th, which she hoped could avoid that election participation. On the European side, too, electoral considerations carried weight. National leaders want to show their own voters the clear costs of an EU exit, which is much easier with the UK outside. The British minister failed to grasp the extent to which his country’s exit from the European order is experienced by Germany, Ireland and other EU member states as an existential political attack on the foundations of the union, to be withstood at all costs. In sum: politics above prosperity on both sides (albeit with far lower relative costs for the remaining 27 members). The Brussels machinery is utterly ill-equipped to deal with border issues. A border is pure politics: an arbitrary line between us and them. Borders, in other words, cannot be “depoliticised”, not reasoned away thanks to a legal fix or technological trick. Just as light-heartedly, London first pretended the issue could be solved with technology before running into the sand of legal explanations.

Raw Politics in full: Theresa May braces for crucial Brexit vote

Aa Aa Down to the wire UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a last-minute trip to Strasbourg on Monday night where she negotiated legally binding changes to the Brexit agreement that will be voted on by British MPs tonight. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and May promised to find an alternative solution to the highly controversial backstop agreement by 2020 if the deal passes through Parliament. Read the fine print Despite the newly negotiated terms, UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said the “legal risk remains unchanged” over the UK's ability to exit the backstop agreement. The statement came as a major blow to May, who was hoping to appease members of her own party who fear the agreement will permanently trap the UK in a customs union with the EU. Cox added that the House needs to make a "political judgement" on the agreement. 'No third chances' Juncker on Monday night said there will be “no third chance” for a Brexit deal if MPs vote the current version down on Tuesday. If the deal does not pass, MPs will vote Wednesday on whether the UK will leave the EU without a deal in place. In the event that this vote also fails, a third vote will be held on Thursday that will determine if the UK would be open to extending negotiations past the March 29 deadline. Forecasting May What could tonight mean for the future of the UK prime minister? Our panel discusses what might be in store for May.

Revised Brexit deal does not undermine backstop, says Irish PM

Quick guide Last-minute backstop changes explained What was added to May's withdrawal agreement? It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council, given to May in January. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible. Unilateral statement from the UK Sets out the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement. Hoped to be enough to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, to change his initial legal advice that the backstop could be in place indefinitely. Daniel Boffey Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback. He echoed Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, in saying that a freshly negotiated legal add-on to the Brexit deal was “complementary” and not a rewrite. It says that we will work together, in good faith, in pursuit of a future relationship that ensures that the objectives of the protocol, particularly the need to avoid a hard border, are met.” Varadkar read from a prepared statement and did not take questions, reflecting the Irish government’s desire to project a sober tone and not say anything to complicate Theresa May’s uphill battle to get the deal through Westminster. Those doubts and fears can now be put to bed.” Varadkar was at Dublin airport preparing to fly to Washington on Monday night but returned to government buildings for a late-night cabinet meeting.

Tory Brexiter support for May deal to hinge on legal advice

Conservative Brexiters have said they will assess the EU’s new assurances based on whether the UK could leave the backstop “at the time of our choosing”, with the decision likely to hinge on the revised legal advice of the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox. Joint interpretative instrument A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement. Michael Gove said it was “make your mind up time for all of us” and that MPs would have to balance “a series of risks” when they voted on Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday evening. What we decide today will decide whether or not we will get a good relationship afterwards or whether we get spoon-fed what the EU wants us to be.” David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, said the votes of Eurosceptics “all now depends on the attorney general’s legal advice. Play Video 2:20 Jacob Rees-Mogg, who chairs the European Reasearch Group (ERG) of Eurosceptic Tories, said “many Conservatives will be heavily influenced by the DUP’s view”. The Brexit state of play: a guide to this week's crucial votes Read more The seven MPs are Nigel Dodds – the deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist party (DUP), whose opinion carries weight with Eurosceptic Conservatives – as well as the former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, the ex-ministers David Jones and Suella Braverman, the veteran Brexiter Bill Cash, and the backbenchers Michael Tomlinson and Robert Courts. May will need to convince the vast majority of Tory Brexiters and the DUP in order for her deal to pass and is likely to face continued opposition from Tory remainers, Labour and most opposition parties. Will Brexit be decided today? He said the UK’s unilateral declaration was meaningless. Starmer’s advice said: “The withdrawal agreement does not include a mechanism for unilateral exit from – or termination of – the backstop (or any other part of the agreement) even where bad faith is made out.

Brexit talks ‘deadlocked’, says Downing Street

Downing Street has described the Brexit talks in Brussels as “deadlocked” after negotiations over the weekend failed to find a breakthrough on the Irish backstop. Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, spoke on the telephone on Sunday evening to “take stock”, but plans for the prime minister to visit the Belgian capital to sign off on any compromise are on hold. “No further meetings at a political level are scheduled but both sides will remain in close contact this week”, a commission spokesman added on Monday. “The commission has made proposals on further assurances that the backstop, if used, will apply temporarily… It is now for the House of commons to make an important set of decisions this week”. They have advised May instead to replace the vote with a motion setting out the sort of Brexit deal that would be acceptable to Tory MPs, in the hope that this would trigger concessions from the EU. Could end with a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, new ideas or ... MPs vote on May’s deal for a third time No Yes Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March No-deal Brexit on 29 March, or ... EU makes surprise last-minute concessions on the backstop. MPs pass May’s deal Brexit with May’s deal on or shortly after 29 March 12 March MPs vote again on May’s deal Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March Yes No 13 March MPs vote on whether to leave without a deal No-deal Brexit on 29 March Yes No 14 March MPs vote on whether to extend article 50 UK asks for a short extension Yes No 21 March summit EU leaders vote on allowing a short extension Brexit postponed No Yes No to short, but yes to longer extension Brexit postponed MPs vote on offer of a longer extension No Yes Deadlock. Could end with a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, new ideas or ... Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March MPs vote on May’s deal for a third time Yes No No-deal Brexit on 29 March, or ... Brexit with May’s deal on or shortly after 29 March EU makes surprise last-minute concessions on the backstop. The uncompromising mood among Brexit-minded Conservatives was illustrated on Monday when the Yeovil MP Marcus Fysh suggested May should abandon the meaningful vote and instead have the Commons back a motion outlining support for a deal based on technology-based “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border. Writing in the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a former Conservative minister who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned MPs against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances.

Merkel asks May if she intends to request article 50 extension

Angela Merkel has asked Theresa May if she intends to request an extension to article 50 after reports that No 10 has drawn up contingency plans to delay leaving the EU. A government official confirmed that Merkel “fleetingly” raised the matter at a 45-minute breakfast meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday morning, in a reflection of growing concern from European Union leaders over the lack of time to implement Brexit. Asked if the topic of a possible two-month delay was raised, the official said: “It wasn’t something that the PM raised. Asked if the story was true, a government official said they did not discuss advice given by officials. The prime minister is also meeting the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, on Monday as part of her talks with EU leaders in Egypt, a senior UK government official said. Over the weekend, three cabinet minsters demanded the prime minister stop using the threat of a no-deal Brexit as a negotiating tactic. Asked if she could announce an extension to article 50, Ellwood said: “You need to wait and hear what she has to say when she gets back.” Theresa May dismisses pressure to step down as PM after Brexit Read more Pressed to clarify whether he knew a delay would be announced, Ellwood said: “That I don’t know. I’m encouraging that to happen because it is not in anybody’s interest to see no deal affecting Britain in the way that we are talking about.” Damian Hinds, the education secretary, insisted Brexit would not be delayed. “There is a very good deal on the table. And it is important to get those resolved, but yes that is what we are doing.” Later on the Today programme, Hinds said delaying the UK’s departure from the EU would only prolong the uncertainty.

EU Parliament election could upend politics across Europe

No, they belong to the same EPP Christian Democrat group, the dominant force in the European Parliament, and should in theory be close allies in May’s European Union election. Some traditional political powerhouses might start to crumble, allowing extremist, populist parties to gain more clout and throw a new wrench into the EU’s political machinery. “We’ve never seen something like this in EU elections,” said European politics Professor Hendrik Vos of Ghent University about the abrasive election climate. National political parties with common ideology then unite in EU-wide groups like the center-right EPP, the center-left S&D Socialists and the liberal, pro-business ALDE. Over the years, the major political groups started looking at adding unattached national parties to expand their bases. Orban’s Fidesz party followed soon after. Over a dozen EU nations have fragile minority governments and Poland has turned as hostile toward Brussels as Hungary. The first projections for the 705-seat legislature, produced this week by the parliament itself, show the EPP Christian Democrats struggling with 183 seats, the S&D Socialists losing big to land at 135 seats and their grand coalition short of a majority for the first time. That would be music to Orban’s ears and a massive defeat for Juncker. Since Juncker is not running for another term as Commission president, the vote in May could be the last round of their fight.

Coffeeshop: The politics of halloumification

THE HALLOUMI application was put on hold by the Commission because of four new demands made by our foreign ministry after the common understanding was reached in Nicosia. We demanded that the six-monthly report by the foreign company that would certify the standards of hellim produced in the north should be submitted to the Cyprus government which would then send these to the Commission, because this was the sovereign right of the Republic. HOW COULD Prez Nik have reached such a halloumi deal with Juncker that would open the way to Taiwanification of the north, the halloumification of bicommunal relations and the downgrading of the Republic? Nik had been waiting to get his own back on Juncker, feeling that the Commission president had stitched him, having “secured the common understanding on halloumi, between wine and hiccups, when he came to Nicosia in 2015.” This theory is not without merit. Some at the presidential palace and Disy “link the success of the euro-elections and the future of the government, but also the legacy of Healthy (nickname for Nik) with the rescue of halloumi.” WHAT A PITY, that our foreign minister failed to persuade his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, whom he met in Moscow on Friday, to extend Russia’ stand on principle on the Cyprob to halloumi as well. OUR PRIESTS, who finally decided to meet and take a stand on the Orthodox Church dispute caused by the rift between the Russian Church and the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomeos over the latter’s recognition of the autocephaly of the Ukrainian Church. Elam called on the government to “immediately stop negotiations and report to all international forums, including the EU and the UN, the aggressive actions of Turkey.” The Lillikas Alliance urged the government to “immediately make strong representations to the UN and in parallel the president of the Republic must report events to international and European organs.” The Perdikis party called on the “foreign ministry to make representations to the UN, at a time when more than ever before the President of the Republic must report the events to European and international organs.” It makes you wonder if the parties employ the same person to write their announcements for them. Apart from Strovilia, the Turkish army had move forward a guard post in Astromeritis, set up machine-gun positions Dherynia and had army officers visit Pyla. I hope Prez Nik will remember to mention the moving forward of the Astromeritis guard post when he is reporting Turkey’s provocations to European and international forums. It is a Turkish reprisal for Prez Nik going back on the halloumi agreement of July 2015.

No-deal Brexit would mean hard Irish border, EU confirms

The EU has put further pressure on the Brexit talks by confirming it will enforce a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event of a no-deal outcome, despite the risk this would pose to peace. But the Juncker’s spokesman said on Tuesday the likely enforcement of border checks could not be avoided. Of course we stand behind the Good Friday agreement, but that is what no-deal would entail.” How four different customs union options led to the Irish border backstop compromise customs union Red line for DUP No need for Irish border checks, but checks needed on goods moving between NI and the UK Border in the Irish sea UK-NI customs union (soft border) Red line for Brussels Lack of checks on Irish border leaves a back door to the EU single market UK-NI customs union (hard border) Red line for Dublin Hard border to preserve integrity of EU single market contravenes Good Friday agreement customs union Red line for DUP No need for Irish border checks, but checks needed on goods moving between NI and the UK UK-NI customs union (soft border) Red line for Brussels Lack of checks on Irish border leaves a back door to the EU single market UK-NI customs union (hard border) Red line for Dublin Hard border to preserve integrity of EU single market contravenes Good Friday agreement Border in the Irish sea Guardian graphic In the Irish parliament, the prime minister, Leo Varadkar, responded by insisting an arrangement similar to the Irish backstop would still have to be negotiated if the Brexit deal failed to get through the UK parliament. “We already have that agreement. It is the backstop … We have a proposal that does work. We are under no illusions about how challenging that would be.” The Democratic Unionist party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, dismissed the remarks by Juncker’s spokesman. “We have to be firm and flexible at the same time,” Verhofstadt told MEPs. But he ruled out any changes to the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop.