Tag: Islamism

The latest decline in the rupiah exchange rate had nothing to do with Friday’s announcement of the presidential candidate pairs contesting the April 17, 2019 election, but was triggered mostly by the contagious effect of the Turkish lira’s plunge. That the rupiah depreciation was deeper than most currencies of emerging economies was caused by the second-quarter increase in Indonesia’s current account deficit to US$8 billion, or 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, businesspeople and investors, being pragmatic folk, appear content with the incumbent’s choice of Ma’ruf Amin, a senior Muslim cleric, as his running mate. Fortunately, the President’s economic track record is not bad at all. True, the government will most likely fail to achieve its 2019 economic growth target of 7 percent, as Jokowi had promised during his 2014 campaign. Furthermore, the accelerated pace of infrastructure development and the poverty rate’s historic decline from 10.64 percent a year earlier to single digit (9.8 percent) as of March have been praised both nationally and internationally. The opposition may attack the steep rise in the nominal amount of government debt, but the indebtedness is only around 30 percent of GDP, well below the legal ceiling of 60 percent, and the fiscal deficit is hovering slightly below the legal threshold of 3 percent. On the positive side, the economy would likely get a boost from spending during the nearly 200 days of the campaign period. We think the biggest downsides to the economy in the short term remain the pressures on the rupiah from the United States Federal Reserve’s money tightening policy and worsening balance of payments amid the bleak outlook on exports, a new round of steep hikes in the oil price and campaign rhetoric against foreign investors. The above 4 percentage points in real rate differences between Indonesia and the US should now be adequate to curb sudden, massive capital outflows for the rest of the year — as long as the government checks inflation at below 4 percent and the central bank continues to be ready with timely market intervention measures.

. Instead, the nation was waiting to see which of two mainstream political parties would win a crucial parliamentary election in Lahore this past Sunday. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-N and the opposition Pakistan Justice Movement came in first and second, respectively. Until now, though, extreme parties mostly have built support through mosques and religious appeal. He said the group already is making plans to participate in next year’s national elections. “If we win, we will serve the people and struggle to establish Islamic rule in this country, based on Islamic justice for all,” he said. The issue already is raising official hackles and disputes here because of the Trump administration’s accusations that Pakistan is providing sanctuary for anti-Afghan militant groups. Both the anti-blasphemy and pro-Kashmir movements have been unofficially tolerated because of their public popularity, and Pakistan’s intelligence agency has long been reported to abet Lashkar-e-Taiba in its various incarnations. Saeed has been repeatedly placed under house arrest, then allowed to return to his fiery pulpit in Lahore on Fridays. “They cannot win elections and come to power.