Tag: Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

Many political prognosticators were sorely humbled by the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Was it the hidden hand of Russia that tipped the scales and proved false the widespread expectation of a Clinton victory? Or were the prognosticators’ tools themselves faulty? But the challenge is accepting rolling registrations, so solvers can register at any point. In developing their solutions, solvers will have access to a continuously updated stream of data and forecasts produced by a crowd of human forecasters. To be eligible for a prize, the solver must provide a document detailing the solution method employed. That method can, however, include human judgments. According to IARPA, it is “interested in any method that advances the science of forecasting. This may include investigating how a combination of computer models and human judgments can be used to make accurate forecasts.” Solvers will be judged against each other, as well as against the results of a platform developed by an earlier challenge --the Hybrid Forecasting Competition. The HFC platform relies more heavily on human input and judgments than the methods being nurtured by Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge.