Tag: Horst Seehofer

The image that sticks most in my mind from the uniquely disruptive political year that was 2018 is of Angela Merkel with Horst Seehofer on the balcony of the Chancellery building. The chancellor, a glass of white wine in her hand, has turned her back and is stalking away from her rebellious interior minister, as though he were a dog she'd just caught going through the kitchen garbage can. If a current article in The New Yorker magazine is to be believed, one major reason Merkel decided to run for a fourth term in office in 2017 was because she felt the world needed a counterweight to US President Donald Trump. The incipient dissolution of the SPD The irony is that much of the political disruption in Germany was due to factors beyond the control of a chancellor whose preference — indeed whose whole political brand — is to remain above the fray. Merkel spent the first months of 2018 doing something familiar: negotiating a third centrist grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). The SPD began to disintegrate. It started with then-SPD Chairman Martin Schulz flip-flopping on whether Social Democrats would form another Merkel-led government and whether he himself would serve in it. Such is the state of Merkel's current partners. The Greens, whose popularity has yo-yoed over decades but who have never been a dominant party, are now Germany's second strongest political force, at least if public opinion polls are true, while the SPD is battling it out for third with the upstart AfD. Together, the conservatives and the SPD would be unlikely to be able to muster anywhere near a parliamentary majority.

“There’s no reason to hang on to the grand coalition at any price,” he tweeted, adding that the Bavarian election outcome showed the coalition’s “stability is dwindling.” The big winners of the night were the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which debuted in a Bavarian election with 10.2 percent, and the Greens, which more than doubled its 2013 result to finish with 17.5 percent. One-third of voters cited migration and the integration of foreigners as the biggest problem facing the state in an exit poll for German public television. Three-quarters of Bavarian voters think the Social Democrats should try to renew themselves in opposition in Berlin. If confirmed, the result would be the worst-ever in a state election for Germany’s oldest political party, which is ceding many of its traditional supporters on the left to the Greens. Many voters complain the SPD has lost its profile under Merkel, who has co-opted and taken credit for various SPD initiatives over the years. In Bavaria, where the SPD had long been the No. 2 political force, 76 percent of voters believe the party should try to renew itself in opposition in Berlin, according to an exit poll for German public television. The SPD initially resisted joining another grand coalition, after seeing its support dwindle significantly during its last term as part of a Merkel government. The CSU leadership decided to go toe-to-toe with the AfD on the question of migration. “The results still show that you cannot govern in Bavaria without the CSU.

But is the crisis really over? The superficial explanation for the crisis is that the C.S.U., facing state elections in October, wanted to shore up its conservative base against the far-right Alternative for Germany party, known by its German initials A.f.D. But this crisis is about much more than that. According to the Dublin Convention, which regulates which country is responsible for examining an asylum seeker’s plea for protection, the first country a migrant enters is in charge. However, many migrants don’t stay in those countries but move on to the north of Europe. According to figures by the German Federal Agency for Migration and Refugees, only about a quarter of those applying for asylum in Germany in 2018 are already registered in another European country. In a sane and sound political system, threats to blow up governments and force new elections are reserved for the truly momentous disputes; small things are resolved through compromise. On the political level, however, the strategy worked. The result is not a true “European” fix, as the chancellor claims, but a jury-rigged workaround: more external border controls for Germany, and bilateral agreements between Germany and some countries of first entry to take back secondary migrants. So whatever deal is sealed this week, the political crisis over refugees is not over.

SINGAPORE (AP) — Global stocks dropped Monday on concerns over trade as the U.S. and China scheduled the start of tariffs on each other's goods, and a row over migrants threatened the German government. Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for a holiday. KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX lost 1.3 percent to 12,839 and France's CAC 40 shed 1.2 percent to 5,433. Dow futures dropped 0.7 percent and the S&P 500 futures were down 0.6 percent. U.S.-CHINA TARIFFS: Tariffs mooted by the world's two biggest economies are set to take effect from July 6, bolstering fears of a trade war. ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.8 percent to close at 22,680.33. Southeast Asian indexes were mostly lower. ENERGY: Oil futures were mixed after reports that OPEC countries plan to increase production of oil at a meeting this week. The contract lost $1.83 to settle at $65.06 per barrel on Friday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 66 cents to $74.10 in London.