Tag: Great Depression

Polls show socialism has risen in stature, which Mr. McConnell sees as evidence of the new era. Last year, he notes, Gallup found for the first time that Democrats have a more “positive view” of socialism than of capitalism. She calls herself a “democratic socialist.” At the top of the Democratic agenda is a campaign to enact enormous tax hikes on the rich. The Green New Deal is another of Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s ambitious ideas. She’s been a House member for less than two months. If anyone defines the new political era, it’s AOC. I have no problem saying that.” Most Republicans don’t take the Green New Deal seriously. Nor are Republicans anxious about polls that show how popular Democratic tax plans are. There’s no chance of that with a GOP Senate and Donald Trump in the White House. It’s possible for Democrats to hold the House and win the Senate and presidency.

As MPs representing constituencies that voted to leave the EU in 2016, we know only too well about the divisions Brexit has provoked. But we also know that many of the problems that led to the Brexit vote long predated that referendum. Years of austerity, underinvestment, lack of opportunity – all helped to stoke a deep-seated feeling of neglect and anger towards what many saw as a distant and self-serving political establishment. Seen in this context, it is no surprise that so many people in the seats we represent chose to vote for radical change. The offer was clear and compelling: leaving would mean a massive budget boost for the NHS and other public services, we would be able to keep our trade with the EU while growing it with the rest of the world, and prices would fall. Yet the reality today is quite different. And far from taking back control, Brexit would see the UK forced to follow EU rules over which we will no longer have a say. We have to be honest that the Brexit that was promised cannot be delivered, and that, if we leave, that will be just the start of a process that will consume our country for a generation or more. The radical Labour government we all want will not be able to do much if we are poorer and cut off from our main trading partner. Nigel Farage is now planning his next “power to the people”-type campaign.

In 1932, FDR’s theme song was “Happy Days Are Here Again.” The idea was he could lead us out of the Great Depression — although more voters probably were inspired by the idea that he promised to end Prohibition. John F. Kennedy used the Frank Sinatra song “High Hopes” in 1960. Donald Trump often has used the song “We’re Not Going to Take It,” by Twisted Sister, a band that probably is not on the playlist for most of his conservative supporters. Considering it was a song by a band that was wracked by personal scandal and broken relationships, only to make a comeback, it seemed weirdly appropriate. Then there is my personal favorite — Ross Perot’s campaign song in 1992. The band loudly protested. Neil Young protested when Trump used his song “Rockin’ in the Free World.” When Ronald Reagan used “Born in the U.S.A” in 1984, Bruce Springsteen tried to show him who really was boss. In fact, all kinds of groups have threatened Trump in recent years when he used their songs, but the Donald being the Donald, he just keeps using them, anyway. There are lots more candidates and lots more songs, but I’m out of space. We’ll just wrap it up with what might be the most appropriate political song of them all: “It’s the End of the World as We Know It” (R.E.M.).

Obama complained in two recent speeches that he has not received adequate recognition for his contribution to the soaring economy, for which he claims credit. This is Obama’s fantasy land, because he has a total misunderstanding of basic economics. Obama reopened his assault on President Trump and congressional Republicans with a claim that tax cuts increase the deficit but that Republicans really don’t care about deficits and national debt. But as Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s chairman of the White House National Economic Council, reported on CBS’s “Face the Nation” last month, “Even the [latest] CBO numbers show now that the entire $1.5 trillion is virtually paid for by higher revenues and better nominal GDP.” Many people have trouble understanding the relationship between tax policy and the economy, and the economy’s effect on tax revenues resulting from differing tax policies. Today, the economy is booming in response to the 2017 tax reform, and the resulting effect on tax revenues is so strong that even state and local tax revenues are increasing. Similarly, when Reagan entered office in 1981, he led Congress to enact across-the-board tax cuts of 25 percent and, in the 1986 tax reform, replaced the entire federal income tax structure with just two rates — 28 percent and 15 percent. Even with those sweeping tax cuts, federal tax revenues during Reagan’s presidency actually doubled because of the booming growth resulting from such tax liberation. As former senior congressional staffer Mike Solon reported in Real Clear Politics on Aug. 5, CBO’s April 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook stated (page 94) that 10-year federal tax revenue estimates had risen by $1.008 trillion “for economic reasons.” Solon said, “This is the largest jump in revenues ‘for economic reasons’ ever reported by CBO and results from, in CBO’s words, their ‘current projections suggest[ing] a stronger economic outlook than those that the agency published in June 2017.’” In June 2017, just the anticipation of Trump’s tax cuts led to increased investment and growth, producing $195 billion in new revenues “for economic reasons.” With further revenues and increased growth by April 2018, the total resulting revenue increase was $1.238 trillion, offsetting 88 percent of the originally projected $1.456 trillion revenue loss, or virtually all of it. By Obama’s last year (2016), CBO’s 10-year projected revenue loss from his 2013 tax increase had ballooned to $3.1 trillion, almost five times his supposed tax increase, which only further increased the deficit. The Trump/Republican tax reform is not significantly increasing the deficit, but rather producing growth that is paying for the tax cuts, just as Reagan’s and Kennedy’s did.

A leaderless world is sleepwalking towards a repeat of its near meltdown in late 2008 and early 2009 because it has failed to remedy the causes of the financial crash of a decade ago, former prime minister Gordon Brown has warned. In the next crisis a breakdown of trust in the financial sector would be mirrored by breakdown in trust between governments In the light of the trade war launched against Beijing by the US, Brown doubted that China would be as cooperative a second time. He said the global economy still lacked an early warning system and a system for monitoring financial flows so that it was possible to tell what had been lent to whom and on what terms. “Yes, we did not know what was going on in some of the institutions, some of it illegal, and which was being covered up.” But he insisted that the mood at the time was for even greater deregulation of the City. “I was being criticised for being too tough in terms of regulation and tax.” Since the crisis, banks have been forced to hold more capital to protect them against possible losses, and a system of bonus clawbacks has been introduced to dissuade bankers from taking too many risks. Brown said there would be a different cause next time. There are problems in emerging markets.” Brown said one area of concern should be heavy commercial and industrial lending by lightly or unregulated shadow banks at a time when US interest rates are rising. We have had a decade of stagnation and we are now about to have a decade of vulnerability.” Recalling the freezing up of the financial markets a decade ago, Brown said governments had sought to compensate for the lack of trust between banks by cooperating more closely. “Countries have retreated into nationalist silos and that has brought us protectionism and populism. “We were out of recession in 2009 but back in it by 2011.