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Nationalism, domestic politics, and China’s global leadership role

Whether China is willing and able to take on a global leadership role in the economic, political and security realms is of particular interest. China’s approach to global leadership has also served as an indicator of Chinese grand strategy —whether China will maintain narrow national interests that only extend into its region or contribute to the global order as a ‘responsible stakeholder.’ How should we understand China’s current global role and its ambitions? For its part Beijing has at times viewed the call for China to shoulder more international responsibilities “as part of an international conspiracy to thwart China’s development.” But neither argument gives adequate attention to how Chinese domestic public opinion may shape the degree and nature of China’s leadership role. First, Xi Jinping uses nationalism to boost his legitimacy, and this has taken on a definitively global tone through his ‘two guidances.’ This refers to Xi’s call for Beijing to “guide the international community to jointly build a more just and reasonably new world order,” and “guide the international community to jointly maintain international security.” Second, the Chinese government increasingly surveys the Chinese public on a wide array of topics in order to respond to (or manipulate) public concerns. The bottom line is that nationalism supports a greater global role for the prestige and enhanced ability to protect Chinese interests, and also creates limitations on the nature and degree of China’s global involvement. Foreign aid programs have been much slower to develop, however, because of domestic factors. Specifically, while U.S. foreign aid and trade partnerships have arguably been strategically oriented—focused on combatting communism in the Cold War and counterterrorism today (Pakistan is a major beneficiary and foreign military financing was the third largest project in 2016)—China pursues projects that directly benefit China economically. In other words, the aid projects are focused on industries in which Chinese companies are deeply involved and stand to profit. China’s Security Role Domestic public opinion also creates incentives for the Chinese military to play a global, albeit limited role. By 2020, approximately 150 million Chinese citizens will be traveling and living abroad.