Tag: Frank Luntz

Political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz says that the “only way” that Republicans maintain their congressional majority in the midterms is if they cater to two types of voters: the pro-Trump wing of the party, as well as independents and swing voters. “The problem for the GOP is that they have to win both of these groups if they are to keep the majority,” Luntz told Powerhouse Politics podcast hosts Jonathan Karl and Rick Klein. “Frankly, at this point in August, I don't think it's likely.” Luntz's comments came mere hours after President Donald Trump credited himself for Republican Troy Balderson's "great victory" in the OH-12 special election. With less than 1 percent separating Balderson from his Democratic opponent, Danny O'Connor, the race is still too close to call. According to the political consultant, because there are these “two different constituencies with ... two different attitudes towards Donald Trump," the president's campaigning efforts aren’t always helpful for GOP candidates. In states like Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia, Luntz believes Trump can “make a difference.” “Those are the places I would send him to,” he said. But in other places like Philadelphia and Cleveland, Luntz claims that Trump may even harm Republican candidates’ chances by campaigning for them. “There are places where Donald Trump is still insanely popular but that does not do anything for the independent. That does not do anything for the swing voter,” he said. “I question whether ... there's enough time to push that narrative to avoid a debacle for the Republicans in November.” Luntz called the future prospect of “Speaker Nancy Pelosi” attempting to negotiate with President Donald Trump “unimaginable.” And yet, the political strategist says it's “possible that that's exactly what voters will do.” “There will be some Trump voters who are going to do that out of protest, not understanding that the consequence of that vote will be things like impeachment, attempts to roll back tax cuts,” he stated.

To many conservatives, the compromise immigration proposal released this past week by House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, is little more than “amnesty.” One tea party group described the Republican plan as “the final betrayal.” Fox Business host Lou Dobbs, who is close to President Donald Trump, tweeted Friday that Ryan is “trying to open our borders even more and give illegal immigrants the biggest amnesty in American history.” The tension threatens to exacerbate the GOP’s political challenges this fall, when their majorities in the House and Senate could be at risk. “The hardcore Trump voter has a different point of view than the ever-important independent voter, and there doesn’t seem to be a middle ground.” The draft legislation, resulting from intense negotiations between moderates and conservatives, includes a path to citizenship for an estimated 1.8 million young immigrants in the country illegally. The plan includes $25 billion for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and other security measures sought by the White House. Republicans had trumpeted Trump’s support for the plan, yet he told reporters early Friday he would not sign it if it reached his desk. “House Republicans are not going to take on immigration without the support and endorsement of President Trump,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-North Carolina., the GOP’s chief deputy vote counter. “We’re studying the proposal,” said Arizona Rep. Martha McSally, who is viewed as the GOP establishment’s favorite in one of the top Senate races. “Congress should focus on border security and stop talking about amnesty as a solution.” In Pennsylvania, Rep. Lou Barletta, the Republican nominee against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey took an equally aggressive approach against his own party’s immigration plan. It’s amnesty.” Barletta said he has compassion for the children caught up in the immigration debate. Barletta said his party should “absolutely” fear a political backlash from its base this fall should Republicans push through the current compromise. In an election year in which Democrats appear to have an advantage on voter enthusiasm, Republicans can ill afford to alienate any voters this fall, particularly their most passionate supporters.