Tuesday, August 20, 2019
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Politics Podcast: We Evaluated All Of Our Forecast Models. They’re Reliable.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast series “Model Talk” is back for a special installment! Fortunately, it turns out they’re well calibrated. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recording a live podcast in Houston, Texas on May 8. Find more information and tickets here. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN app or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with additional episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Politics Podcast: Julian Castro’s Path To The 2020 Nomination

Julian Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio mayor and a former secretary of housing and urban development, announced his candidacy for president on Saturday. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates what his seemingly long-shot path to the Democratic nomination could look like. The crew also lays out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and weaknesses and discusses the political situation that has kept the government partially shut down for a record amount of time. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

New polls show slump in Donald Trump’s approval rating

A Quinnipiac poll measured Trump’s approval at 38%, down from 41% a month prior. On the bright side for Trump, 70% of voters told Quinnipiac they think the nation’s economy is “excellent” or “good.” Pollsters can be wrong: while national polls in the 2016 election exceeded historical standards for accuracy, there were some significant misses at the state level, and those misses continue to happen. Even with the most recent bad polling numbers, Trump’s average approval rating sits at 40.0%, right in his sweet spot. The only other president to fall short of 50% approval so early in his presidency was Bill Clinton, who notched 44% approval in 1993 before winning re-election. What the turnout factor is for millennials, what the turnout factor is for people of color, really has a massive impact Celinda Lake “The single hardest thing in the polling – and it’s turning out to be very complicated so far this year – is to figure out who’s actually going to turn out to vote,” she said. For example, national polls were on the money in the 2016 presidential election: Clinton was meant to win the popular vote by about three points. “For example in 2014, millennials and people of color didn’t turn out to vote, so if you’re basing your turnout model on the past, then you’re going to be wrong. When there is a Democrat in the White House, the GOP advantage grows a few points more. Read more Democrats have performed well in contests since Trump was elected, easily winning two gubernatorial elections in 2017 and outperforming the baseline in special elections that year. As a result, Republicans gained control of the Senate and, counting state legislatures and governorships, cemented their largest majority nationally going back almost 100 years.

Emergency Politics Podcast: Mueller’s Latest Indictment Comes At A Charged Moment

In an emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down what is new and notable in special counsel Robert Mueller’s Friday indictment of 12 Russian intelligence agents. The charges lay out detailed accounts of how investigators believe Russian government agents conspired to hack Democratic campaign infrastructure and attempted to break into state elections systems. The news also comes days before President Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump’s Chance To Reshape The Supreme Court

Justice Anthony Kennedy announced on Wednesday that he is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court, creating a vacancy that President Trump will have the chance to fill. FiveThirtyEight contributor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Nate Silver on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast to react to the news. They discuss what it means for the ideology of the court going forward and how the vacancy could affect the midterm elections this fall. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Politics Podcast: Trump Won’t Stop Talking About Immigration

President Trump backed down on Wednesday from his “zero tolerance” immigration policy, which separately detained parents and children who crossed the border illegally. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses the fallout from the policy and how Trump is talking about immigration in the run-up to the midterms. Also, as record numbers of Democratic women run for Congress, the crew asks why there aren’t more Republican women running. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

FiveThirtyEight moves to ABC News, continuing ESPN transition away from politics and personality-focused sites

Earlier this year, Ryan Glasspiegel of The Big Lead reported that ESPN was “exploring its options to sell or otherwise divest from” FiveThirtyEight, the Nate Silver-led data-driven politics, sports and culture site they bought in 2013 and launched in March 2014. Our new home is ABC News! We're super excited to work with @ABC and combine our strengths with theirs as we tackle the 2018 and 2020 elections and other news stories. Nate Silver and his brilliant FiveThirtyEight team are joining ABC News from ESPN. And much of FiveThirtyEight’s coverage, especially when it comes to politics, seems like a better fit under that umbrella anyway; Goldston’s memo mentions that FiveThirtyEight worked with ABC News during the 2014 and 2016 elections, and this seems like a logical time to make that move; it’s well in advance of the 2018 midterm elections, and that will let the site be established under its new umbrella before that coverage really ramps up. The extent to which anything like Get Up or SC6 actually covers politics isn’t the point; it’s that those shows have been perceived as “political,” and that’s part of why ESPN went away from SC6. However, this is also notable as part of a larger strategy shift at ESPN. All in all, this is probably a move that makes some sense for everyone. Sending it over to ABC News means that the site stays within Disney, that it can work more closely with existing news teams on politics coverage, and that ESPN can disassociate itself from that side while still working with or picking up FiveThirtyEight’s sports coverage. But this is a further indication of how ESPN’s changed since 2014, and another part of the old ESPN that’s going away.