Tag: European Union law

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists. The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU. It has been claimed that the UK could simply move to WTO terms if there is no deal with the EU. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. There are two apparently insurmountable hurdles to the UK trading on current WTO tariffs in the event of Britain crashing out in March, said Howard. Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. To make it more complicated, there are no “default terms” Britain can crash out on, Howard said, while at the same time, the UK has been blocked by WTO members from simply relying on the EU’s “schedule” – its existing tariffs and tariff-free trade quotas. The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, Howard said. “Negotiating and ratifying the international free trade deals with the rest of the world alone could take over seven years,” she said. “The UK will have to start negotiating over 50 free trade agreements from scratch once we leave the EU.

Britain should accept continued EU regulations in goods in return for retaining access to the EU single market, one of the thinktanks closest to Downing Street has proposed. After consultations across business and politics, a report from Open Europe concludes: “There is no strong business case for immediate significant divergence from the EU’s regulatory regime.” It says adherence to EU standards would not restrict growth in the export of British goods outside the EU. However, a long-term willingness to accept EU rules in the field of goods would require a greater role for the European court of justice, or at least a judicial dispute resolution mechanism informed by the ECJ rulings, and would also set limits on the UK’s ability to negotiate its own free trade deals. The compromise will be seen as significant step forward by European business leaders, many of whom are due to meet Theresa May on Monday in Downing Street. The proposal is largely endorsed by the Eurosceptic former chancellor Norman Lamont in a foreword to the pamphlet. Manufacturers in highly regulated industries often follow EU rules anyway, in some cases even in the US. “The debate at the moment is polarised between hardline leavers who refuse to accept giving up any sovereignty whatever the economic costs, and extreme remainers who want to either reverse the referendum result or at least recreate the entire structures of the EU from the outside. The report says a twin-track trading strategy for goods and services is justified by the trade flow figures. In 2016 the EU accounted for around 48% of UK goods exports, with the EU representing by far the UK goods industries’ most important export market. The bulk of this trade is in motor vehicles and parts, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and computing, electronic and electrical products.