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Cocoa Farmers in Top Producer May Miss Out on Surging Prices

Farmgate price seen stable at around 700 francs a kilogram Output for the season’s smaller crop could reach 500,000 tons Cocoa prices have surged by a third this year, but that’s still unlikely to translate into big gains for farmers in top producer Ivory Coast. The West African nation uses forward sales to determine the minimum farmer price, so recent gains may have come too late for the smaller of two annual harvests that starts next week. That will limit President Alassane Ouattara’s ability to boost farmer rates. Read a Quicktake about Ivory Coast’s cocoa sector and last year’s crisis Ivory Coast will probably announce the minimum farmer price for the mid-crop, which runs from April through September, on Thursday. The regulator is auctioning a further 150,000 metric tons of mid-crop beans after previous sales for 300,000 tons, according to people familiar with the matter. The cocoa regulator and budget ministry forecast production of 450,000 to 500,000 tons, people familiar said last week. Any price cut would put Ouattara’s popularity at risk at the time when divisions are rising within the ruling coalition, said Adeline Van Houtte, research analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. It kept the price steady in October for the main crop harvest that will end this month. “He needs to keep this image especially ahead of the elections and as he is preparing his succession." How’s the crop looking?