Tag: Christian Social Union in Bavaria

While the Free Democrats are less popular than the Greens — they get about 10 percent in most polls — their parallel rise over the last few years, coming alongside significant drops in support for historically dominant parties, points to the possibility of a wholesale realignment of German politics. In the second half of the 20th century, the great fault line in German politics ran between the conservative Christian Democrats (and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union) and the liberal Social Democrats. That’s why the Christian Democrats managed to hold on in rural parts of Bavaria, even as the Social Democrats were wiped out. But the Greens’ main competitor is not the Christian Democrats nor the Social Democrats, but the Free Democrats — known, informally, as the Liberals. Both the Greens and the Liberals agree on many of the cultural issues that divided the old left and right, like abortion and gay rights. But they divide over contemporary flash points like technology (the Liberals embrace its growing role in society; the Greens are skeptical), immigration (the Liberals support a Canadian-style, rules-based system; the Greens are for much more open borders) and economics (in this regard, they mimic their predecessors). Their kinship is one result of the changing axis of values in politics — most German voters, across the political spectrum, now agree on the things that once divided them, and their leading parties. Germany is not alone in this political realignment. One of the reasons given for the rise of the far right in Germany is the coziness between the two leading parties of the 20th century. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor.

The Bavarian elections were not an “earthquake”, but they were certainly an “upheaval”. Few party systems still have one, let alone two, parties that gain more than a third of the vote Against these big losses stood major gains. While falling well below the poll scores that made international news a few months ago, the AfD was still the biggest winner in their first Bavarian elections. In terms of aggregate scores, the leftwing parties (the SPD and Greens) largely offset each other, as did the two rightwing parties (the CSU and AfD). Similarly, in many countries, including Belgium and the Netherlands, we see social democratic parties lose (big) and Green parties, and sometimes the radical left, win (big). In these cases, the bloc moves (somewhat) to the left. Second, the party system, including the left and right blocs, has become more fragmented. Few party systems still have one, let alone two, parties that gain more than a third of the vote. Most parties today are medium-sized, which means the blocs no longer consist of a big social democratic party and a small Green party, but two near equal-sized parties. This transformation of European politics deserves more attention from academics and journalists alike, who too often get distracted by a simplistic “populists versus establishment” frame, and reduce stability and volatility to gains and losses of individual parties.

“There’s no reason to hang on to the grand coalition at any price,” he tweeted, adding that the Bavarian election outcome showed the coalition’s “stability is dwindling.” The big winners of the night were the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which debuted in a Bavarian election with 10.2 percent, and the Greens, which more than doubled its 2013 result to finish with 17.5 percent. One-third of voters cited migration and the integration of foreigners as the biggest problem facing the state in an exit poll for German public television. Three-quarters of Bavarian voters think the Social Democrats should try to renew themselves in opposition in Berlin. If confirmed, the result would be the worst-ever in a state election for Germany’s oldest political party, which is ceding many of its traditional supporters on the left to the Greens. Many voters complain the SPD has lost its profile under Merkel, who has co-opted and taken credit for various SPD initiatives over the years. In Bavaria, where the SPD had long been the No. 2 political force, 76 percent of voters believe the party should try to renew itself in opposition in Berlin, according to an exit poll for German public television. The SPD initially resisted joining another grand coalition, after seeing its support dwindle significantly during its last term as part of a Merkel government. The CSU leadership decided to go toe-to-toe with the AfD on the question of migration. “The results still show that you cannot govern in Bavaria without the CSU.

But is the crisis really over? The superficial explanation for the crisis is that the C.S.U., facing state elections in October, wanted to shore up its conservative base against the far-right Alternative for Germany party, known by its German initials A.f.D. But this crisis is about much more than that. According to the Dublin Convention, which regulates which country is responsible for examining an asylum seeker’s plea for protection, the first country a migrant enters is in charge. However, many migrants don’t stay in those countries but move on to the north of Europe. According to figures by the German Federal Agency for Migration and Refugees, only about a quarter of those applying for asylum in Germany in 2018 are already registered in another European country. In a sane and sound political system, threats to blow up governments and force new elections are reserved for the truly momentous disputes; small things are resolved through compromise. On the political level, however, the strategy worked. The result is not a true “European” fix, as the chancellor claims, but a jury-rigged workaround: more external border controls for Germany, and bilateral agreements between Germany and some countries of first entry to take back secondary migrants. So whatever deal is sealed this week, the political crisis over refugees is not over.

On Sunday, 68 per cent of the members of the Social Democrats (SPD) voted for another Grand Coalition with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union CDU (and Christian Social Union in Bavaria). Some have remarked that hers was a quiet power, that she changed the style of politics in the German Federal Republic. Before Merkel became Chancellor in 2005, no woman had held high political office. It is often overlooked that West Germany effectively banned women’s right to choose before the unification of Germany in 1990. On her watch, Germany became a more social democracy – with small “s”. The late Guido Westerwelle became Germany’s first openly gay Cabinet Minister when he served as Merkel’s foreign secretary between 2009 and 2013. But what is most remarkable is the near dominance of women in the two largest parties. After an internal jockeying for position, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was chosen as the new Secretary General of the CDU. In Germany, politics is a feminist issue. Matthew Qvortrup’s book Angela Merkel: Europe’s Most Influential Leader is published by Duckworth.