Tag: Chavismo

On 1 July, the Mexican people will vote in possibly the most important presidential election in their country's recent history. If AMLO is elected president, what kind of policies will he implement? The biggest fear of the Mexican private sector is that AMLO will embark on a Venezuela-style nationalisation spree, but that is actually quite unlikely. AMLO's policies will not radically eliminate poverty and corruption The core of AMLO's political economy policies will likely involve the reinforcement of existing social programmes like "Piso Firme" and " Vivienda Digna", which distribute construction materials to low-income populations to ensure that they are able to access fair housing. AMLO and CNTE are strategic electoral allies, and it is highly unlikely that he will be able to radically reform the system. Although this measure is likely to succeed, it would only tackle high-level corruption and would leave the systemic corruption in the public administration largely unaddressed. If AMLO wins and his party takes 35 - 40 percent of the seats in both chambers, Morena and its coalition forces will face two major problems. If AMLO does not secure the support of a cohesive coalition, he will have little leverage to negotiate policies with other parties, potentially stalling the implementation of the proposed reforms and causing institutional deadlock. The other scenario is that AMLO wins the presidency with 50 percent or more of the votes. Although a better allocation of resources could lead to growth and improved macro-economic performance in the short and medium term, the problem of chronic underdevelopment will remain as long as the education system, justice system, public administration, and law enforcement do not undergo significant overhauls and improvements.