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France, Spain and Belgium ‘ready for no-deal Brexit next week’

The diplomatic cable reveals that the French ambassador secured the support of Spanish and Belgian colleagues in arguing that there should only be, at most, a short article 50 extension to avoid an instant financial crisis, saying: “We could probably extend for a couple of weeks to prepare ourselves in the markets.” The chances of Theresa May’s proposal of an extension to 30 June succeeding appeared slim as France’s position in the private diplomatic meeting was echoed by an official statement reiterating its opposition to any further Brexit delay without a clear British plan. Tusk is pushing the EU to offer at a summit next Wednesday what he has described as a “flextension” in which the UK would be given a year-long extension with an option to come out early if the deal is ratified. Responding to May’s letter publicly, France’s secretary of state for European affairs, Amélie de Montchalin, told the Guardian in a statement: “The European council took a clear decision on 21 March … Another extension requires the UK to put forward a plan with clear and credible political backing.” The council would then define the necessary conditions attached to that extension, she said. “[I]n the absence of such a plan, we would have to acknowledge that the UK chose to leave the EU in a disorderly manner.” According to the diplomatic cable of the EU27 meeting, the French ambassador said he “failed to see in Theresa May’s letter any argument in favour of a long extension”. “Some member states insisted on the need to have a clear UK plan before granting a long extension,” the source added. “There are positive elements to the letter,” the ambassador added. France, with the agreement of the Belgian and Spanish ambassadors, agreed that the current position coming from London did not meet these conditions. A senior EU official briefing the ambassadors conceded there were concerns about a tweet earlier on Friday by the Conservative MP and chairman of the Eurosceptic European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, stating that the British government should disrupt the EU from within in the event of a long extension of EU membership. “The tweet of Jacob Rees-Mogg showed what they are capable of.” Earlier in the day a European commission spokesman played down the impact of Rees-Mogg’s remarks. “We hope for more clarity from London before next Wednesday.”

Brexit talks ‘deadlocked’, says Downing Street

Downing Street has described the Brexit talks in Brussels as “deadlocked” after negotiations over the weekend failed to find a breakthrough on the Irish backstop. Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, spoke on the telephone on Sunday evening to “take stock”, but plans for the prime minister to visit the Belgian capital to sign off on any compromise are on hold. “No further meetings at a political level are scheduled but both sides will remain in close contact this week”, a commission spokesman added on Monday. “The commission has made proposals on further assurances that the backstop, if used, will apply temporarily… It is now for the House of commons to make an important set of decisions this week”. They have advised May instead to replace the vote with a motion setting out the sort of Brexit deal that would be acceptable to Tory MPs, in the hope that this would trigger concessions from the EU. Could end with a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, new ideas or ... MPs vote on May’s deal for a third time No Yes Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March No-deal Brexit on 29 March, or ... EU makes surprise last-minute concessions on the backstop. MPs pass May’s deal Brexit with May’s deal on or shortly after 29 March 12 March MPs vote again on May’s deal Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March Yes No 13 March MPs vote on whether to leave without a deal No-deal Brexit on 29 March Yes No 14 March MPs vote on whether to extend article 50 UK asks for a short extension Yes No 21 March summit EU leaders vote on allowing a short extension Brexit postponed No Yes No to short, but yes to longer extension Brexit postponed MPs vote on offer of a longer extension No Yes Deadlock. Could end with a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, new ideas or ... Brexit with May’s deal on 29 March MPs vote on May’s deal for a third time Yes No No-deal Brexit on 29 March, or ... Brexit with May’s deal on or shortly after 29 March EU makes surprise last-minute concessions on the backstop. The uncompromising mood among Brexit-minded Conservatives was illustrated on Monday when the Yeovil MP Marcus Fysh suggested May should abandon the meaningful vote and instead have the Commons back a motion outlining support for a deal based on technology-based “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border. Writing in the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a former Conservative minister who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned MPs against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances.

Green MEPs held after anti-nuclear protest at Belgian military base

Three Green MEPs – including one from the UK – have been arrested after breaking into a Belgian military airbase to protest against its stockpiling of American B61 nuclear bombs. The MEPs – Molly Scott Cato, Michèle Rivasi and Tilly Metz – unfurled a banner on a runway for F-16 fighter jets at the Kleine Brogel base in the east of the country calling for a nuclear-free Europe, before being taken into custody. Another Green MEP, Thomas Waitz, was arrested in a demonstration outside the base, along with 11 other activists from the Belgian peace group Agir pour la Paix (Act for Peace), three of whom also scaled a 3.5-metre fence to get into the base. The direct action protest follows the US withdrawal from the intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty earlier this month. But campaigners fear this number could rapidly rise in any new arms race, and say each B61 has an explosive yield of up to 340 kilotons, 23 times more powerful than the bomb that devastated Hiroshima. She said: “When you’re talking about the potential end of the world, your own personal safety is put into perspective – and we are talking about weapons that could kill millions of people.” “Nuclear weapons offer no solution in this era and no rationale for defending the people in the south-west who I represent, one of whom died this year because of a Russian secret forces attack. How are nuclear weapons supposed to help Dawn Sturgess?” she said, referring to the woman police believe was killed by novichok in Amesbury, Wiltshire last year. MEPs in Brussels enjoy some immunity from prosecution but it is unclear if this would cover state security laws, which carry potential five-year prison sentences. Michèle Rivasi, the vice-chair of the Green party in the European parliamentsaid on Tuesday that: ““We are demanding the withdrawal of nuclear bombs at Kleine Brogel and also from Italy, Germany and the Netherlands. We urge all EU member states to sign and ratify the treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons.

EU leaders reject May’s idea to salvage her Brexit deal

The embattled prime minister had pinned her hopes on a last-ditch effort to persuade the European Union to work with her in devising a legal guarantee, known as a “joint interpretative instrument”, that she believes could get her Brexit deal through parliament. Following an address by May before a dinner, and subsequent discussions among the 27 member states, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, suggested it was difficult to imagine any deal getting through parliament at the moment, and that it was not up to the EU to satisfy the demands of rebellious MPs. Juncker said: “Our UK friends need to say what they want, rather than asking what we want. Read more Deliberately avoiding the confrontational approach demanded by her hard Brexit critics, May had appealed to her EU counterparts to work with her in revising the Brexit deal. But Juncker said that he could not understand the mindset of British MPs, and indicated an unwillingness to bend to the Commons, setting up a nervous few weeks for Downing Street. The prime minister still hopes to begin a short, intense period of final negotiations with EU officials following the Brussels summit, leading to an additional guarantee that No 10 insists must have legal weight. The UK had hoped to set a year as a target for getting out of the backstop by negotiating a free trade deal or an alternative arrangement for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland. That prompted hostile Conservative MPs to table a motion of no confidence in her as party leadership, which she saw off on Wednesday by 200 to 117. If it comes into force, the UK would remain in a customs union with the EU. And for the #eu also there will be no third country more important than the #uk.

On Politics: Former F.B.I. Lawyer Says Rosenstein’s Proposal to Tape Trump Was No Joke

Good Thursday morning. Here are some of the stories making news in Washington and politics today. • James A. Baker, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s former top lawyer, told congressional officials that he had taken seriously a suggestion by the deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, to secretly tape conversations with President Trump, but that the idea was dismissed within days. Read the story. • The Justice Department said that a Chinese intelligence officer was arrested in Belgium and brought to the United States to face espionage charges, a first. Read the story. It could be a sign that the Mueller investigation is coming to a close. Read the story. Read the story. But a financial disaster may be coming, and just in time for a new governor.
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