Tag: Belgium and Luxembourg

The Bavarian elections were not an “earthquake”, but they were certainly an “upheaval”. Few party systems still have one, let alone two, parties that gain more than a third of the vote Against these big losses stood major gains. While falling well below the poll scores that made international news a few months ago, the AfD was still the biggest winner in their first Bavarian elections. In terms of aggregate scores, the leftwing parties (the SPD and Greens) largely offset each other, as did the two rightwing parties (the CSU and AfD). Similarly, in many countries, including Belgium and the Netherlands, we see social democratic parties lose (big) and Green parties, and sometimes the radical left, win (big). In these cases, the bloc moves (somewhat) to the left. Second, the party system, including the left and right blocs, has become more fragmented. Few party systems still have one, let alone two, parties that gain more than a third of the vote. Most parties today are medium-sized, which means the blocs no longer consist of a big social democratic party and a small Green party, but two near equal-sized parties. This transformation of European politics deserves more attention from academics and journalists alike, who too often get distracted by a simplistic “populists versus establishment” frame, and reduce stability and volatility to gains and losses of individual parties.