What now for Labour?
In the short term, the party is prepared to continue talks with Theresa May to try to see whether a compromise can be found on the future relationship that both sides can support. Two key problems threaten the prospect of success: the prime minister’s almost non-existent authority, and whether it is ultimately ever going to be in Labour’s interests to do a deal with the Tories.
Senior Labour figures simply do not trust that whatever is offered by May or her de facto deputy, David Lidington, will have the support of the cabinet – or that it will not simply be unpicked by a future leader.
Internally, the six-month extension to article 50 complicates matters. There is no urgency to avoid no deal and come to a Brexit agreement. Labour MPs who had been thinking about finally voting for May’s deal are less likely to do so now.
Supporters of a second referendum will feel emboldened to push the party towards backing legislation to allow a fresh poll during the extension period. Even sceptics such as the shadow justice secretary, Richard Burgon, began to sound on Thursday morning like they felt there was no other option left.
Labour could well capitalise on general dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and May in the local elections next month – and later in the EU elections.
What now for the Conservatives?
The most pressing matter for the majority of Tory MPs is getting rid of the prime minister. Even the softest Tories believe May’s authority and can-kicking skills have reached the end of the road.
Yet even cabinet ministers admit there is nothing they can technically do to remove her before December, when the party can again bring a confidence vote to force May out. This is also believed to have been a factor in the 31 October extension date offered by the EU.
There are other options for dissatisfied Conservatives. Some will continue to oppose May’s deal, or even go on a parliamentary “strike”.There is little to no prospect of any Tory MP campaigning seriously in next month’s European parliamentary elections.
The one event that could cause the most serious rupture is if May was to agree to Labour’s demand for a customs union. The anger at that move would be far more intense than the agreement to extend article 50 and could trigger a much bigger cabinet walkout. It could even prompt Tories to vote with Labour in a no-confidence vote brought by the latter.
Mostly, the sense of fatigue in the party is overwhelming. With no crunch votes, summits or cliff edges on the horizon, many Tory MPs are likely to just want to get away from Westminster. Recent history suggests that does not always lead to cool heads when MPs return. That was the calculation May made when she cancelled the first Brexit vote before the Christmas recess, but MPs returned still determined to vote her deal down.
What now for the second referendum campaign?
Experts say mounting a vote before 31 October would be a challenge but possible. The basic requirements would be fresh legislation, testing of the question by the Electoral Commission and a 10-week campaign period.
The Electoral Commission recommends that legislation be in place six months before a referendum “to ensure campaigners and electoral administrators have time to prepare”.
If the first hurdle – primary legislation – is cleared, then the testing of the “intelligibility” of the referendum question can take up to 12 weeks. Once the question is agreed the Electoral Commission would then designate lead campaigners for both sides, adding more time to…
