(CNN)Early warning signs are flashing for President Donald Trump on some of his core arguments on immigration, the economy and North Korea that are central to his 2020 re-election message.
Complications on each of those policy areas threaten to undermine the narrative of unprecedented success that the President has weaved around his first two years in office and are driving political debate as the administration unveils its budget on Monday.
A poorer than expected monthly jobs report Friday fed concern that strong economic growth that anchors Trump’s best argument for a second term is ebbing — something that should worry the President since it’s a critical reelection metric.
Trump has often claimed that he is presiding over the “greatest economy in the history of our country.” But his foundational political promise to eliminate the US trade deficit suffered a blow with new figures showing that the gap between imports and the amount of goods and services that the US sells abroad has grown $100 billion since Trump took office, despite two years of his “America First” tariff policies intended to reinvigorate American manufacturing.
Signs that North Korea could be preparing a missile or satellite launch and its continued expansion of an atomic arsenal undercut the President’s claims that his daring outreach to the isolated state has ended its nuclear threat.
And a rise in crossings across the southern border — while playing into Trump’s claims of a crisis in the short term, contradict his wider argument that hardline enforcement policies are the best way to manage immigration and suggest his totemic political plan for a border wall may be ignoring the real problem.
Trump appears sensitive to the weak points of his political pitch, and spent the weekend tweeting out glowing testimonials about the economy from allies and accusing journalists of distorting the successes of his presidency.
“Despite the most hostile and corrupt media in the history of American politics, the Trump Administration has accomplished more in its first two years than any other Administration. Judges, biggest Tax & Regulation Cuts, V.A. Choice, Best Economy, Lowest Unemployment & much more!” Trump wrote.
“More people are working today in the United States, 158,000,000, than at any time in our Country’s history. That is a Big Deal!”
The good news for Trump is that the election — though it seems increasingly to be on his mind — is 20 months away, and none of the emerging complications are certain to cement themselves in the unpredictable political period ahead. And at their root, presidential elections unfold as a clash between two competing political visions and personalities as much as a contest between rival policy platforms. One of the big questions of the Democratic presidential race is how the eventual nominee will handle the President’s willingness to embrace scorched earth campaigning.
Yet the challenges to Trump’s re-election message are not happening in a vacuum. He has plenty of other looming political problems as well as he faces an unprecedented multi-front battle with House Democrats who have launched investigations into almost every aspect of Trump’s life, political career and business.
The way Trump has positioned his presidency — premising his political viability on the fervent support of his base — means he is insulated to some extent from reversals of fortune. But an eroding re-election argument could also threaten his efforts to win back more moderate voters in swing districts who helped Democrats win the midterm elections last year.
Potential road bumps for Trump’s re-election message also help to explain the relish with which Republicans have seized on the growing pains of the new House Democratic majority — giving a glimpse of the searing attacks that will complement the 2020 narrative of Trump success. Many Republican strategists…
