Will New Zealand politics in 2019 be characterised by policy substance or issues of leadership, personalities and political manoeuvrings? The various political journalists and pundits have made their forecasts (and indulged in some wishful thinking) for the year ahead.
Every year the political journalists at Stuff put together a long list of predictions for the year. This year’s list has the usual mix of policy and people-focused forecasts – see: 2019 Political predictions: Big calls for the year ahead. And it’s also worth looking back at how well they did with their 2018 forecasts (they scored only 90/200) – see: 2018 Political predictions: MPs made big, bold moves.
In terms of policy issues for the Government, the Stuff team are predicting the following for 2019: the capital gains tax will be extended but generally the Government will water down tax reform, a referendum on euthanasia will be established, promised abortion law reform will be parked, and little progress will be made on KiwiBuild.
The Government will also continue to be beset by the Sroubek immigration saga, worker strikes will continue (although the teacher unions are predicted to resolve their claims early in the year), the bullying inquiry in Parliament will lead to substantial reform, and Green co-leader Marama Davidson will embarrass her party with another soap-box campaign.
There are also some major political manoeuvrings predicted – in particular, Judith Collins is forecast to carry out a successful coup against her leader, Simon Bridges. Two new National Party-friendly parties will arise. And a Cabinet reshuffle will bring promotions for Kris Faafoi, Ruth Dyson, Deborah Russell, and Fletcher Tabuteau. And they predict a backbench Government MP will get in trouble for personal issues, and another minister will depart.
Emulating Stuff’s exercise, rightwing blogger David Farrar has his forecasts here: Predictions for 2019. They include a rebrand for the Act Party (to become the “Freedom Party”); deputy Labour Party leader Kelvin Davis to be replaced, another government minister will go, and any proposed new capital gains tax will fail to get enough parliamentary support.
Again, caution is required – Farrar also looks back on his predictions from last year, giving himself a score of 12/20 – see: Scoring my 2018 predictions.
On the left, David Cormack presents more of a wishlist than forecast, particularly on issues like climate change: “let’s just do something. Anything” – see: It’s the end of the year as we know it. Let’s make things happen in 2019. Cormack also hopes something is done about immigration, inequality, and the lack of housing.
Continuing the leftwing predictions/wishlist, Greg Presland writes at The Standard with his own outlook on 2019 – see: Political punditry in 2019. Some of the more interesting forecasts are: Phil Goff to win the Auckland mayoralty again, Simon Bridges to remain as National leader, National will continue to have no political party allies, and the New Conservative Party wins a bigger profile but doesn’t actually take off.
The New Conservatives are predicted to do much better by Martyn Bradbury, who sees them going above five per cent in the polls, aided by an escalating culture war in New Zealand – in particular a conservative backlash against the “woke” left which he sees as being more interested in a “counter…
