Gerson and Capehart on the government shutdown outlook, politics in 2019

Washington Post columnists Michael Gerson and Jonathan Capehart join William Brangham to discuss the week’s political news, including when we might see resolution on the border wall and government shutdown, lessons from the midterm elections and how the Mueller investigation could produce a “polarization machine.”

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  • William Brangham:

    Washington, D.C., and the nation are closing out the year in the middle of a government shutdown, with the two parties as far apart as they can be over the need for a border wall.

    For some analysis on this week in politics, I’m joined by Washington Post columnists Michael Gerson and Jonathan Capehart. Mark Shields and David Brooks are away.

  • William Brangham:

    Jonathan, to you first.

    The chasm between the Democratic Party and President Trump over this shutdown fight over immigration gets wider and wider and wider. Is it your sense that either side genuinely wants a solution, or do they actually relish this fight?

  • Jonathan Capehart:

    I will take President Trump first.

    I think he relishes the fight. He’s been talking about this border wall since his campaign days . He’s been talking about it as president. The only thing that has shifted — well, actually a couple things that have shifted, who’s going to pay for it? It was always going to be Mexico during the campaign, Mexico through most of the administration.

    And now he’s trying to put the American taxpayer on the hook for the border wall. Also, the definition of what the wall — it’s a wall. Then it’s slats. And then it’s whatever else.

    As for the Democrats, I actually do think that they do want to have a solution, not just when it comes to a border wall, but also when it comes to immigration. We have been down this road at least two times this year — and correct me if I’m wrong, Michael — where Democrats have said yes to funding for a border wall, in exchange for protection for dreamers or in exchange for immigration reform.

    And each time, the president has rejected. Each time, the Republicans have rejected it. And so now I think, with Democrats coming into the majority next week, that we might see a push for that, but let’s not — let’s not forget something.

    Republicans still control the House, they still control the Senate, and President Trump is still in the White House. And they could do something with their majorities that they have right now. Clearly, they’re choosing not to.

  • Michael Gerson:

    Well, I think you’re correct, Jonathan, that Democrats have the elements of maybe a deal on this.

    It’s not as though they’re talking about two massively different positions here. It’s not — it’s a rounding error in the budget. And I talked with a Democratic senator today who said — set out two positions that might solve this problem, one including the dreamers, but said, we no longer trust the president. He has to move first.

    And…

  • William Brangham:

    Because they have offered these — they have put those on the table in the past. And the president has said no to them.

  • Michael Gerson:

    Right, exactly, and pulled the rug out. And so he’s an unreliable negotiating partner.

    The president and his people, however, do believe that, first of all, they’re — they’re going to dominate the issue that — instead of the speaker of the House having her issues, OK? I mean, they’re going to dominate what the topic of discussion is, and they think that that’s a winner.

    This is really a case in which both sides think they’re winning. I think it’s not likely that the president is winning. But I do think that this is a little bit of a different shutdown than in the past, because it’s a very partial shutdown. You’re not shutting down Veterans and HHS.

    There are some other…

  • Michael Gerson:

    Right, exactly. I think the cost would be higher. This is a very partial shutdown, which could go on longer for that reason.

  • William Brangham:

    What is your sense about what happens next week? You’re saying, right now, the Republicans have all the chips. They’re the ones in control.

    How much changes when Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats take over next week?

  • Jonathan Capehart:

    Well, the biggest thing will be that Nancy Pelosi will be speaker. The Democrats will have a big majority.

    But Michael hits on something that is going to be the wild card in all of this, and that’s President Trump. I mean, I talked to someone today on the House side who brought up the same issue that you brought up, which is, no one knows what the president actually wants.

    A long time ago, Senator Schumer said negotiating with President Trump is like negotiating with Jell-O. I think what you’re going to hear is, from the Democrats, here’s what our plan is, but we can’t move until we hear from the president what exactly he wants. What are the contours of the deal?

    And then, once that’s out there, pray that he sticks to it, because…

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