(CNN)So much for the old rule that all politics is local.
The results of last week’s election demonstrated how powerfully national trends now shape election outcomes in every region. The election produced remarkably consistent divides along demographic and geographic lines in states as diverse as Arizona, Georgia and Texas on one side, and Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on the other. Though some important regional differences remained, voters who shared the same characteristics or resided in similar places largely voted the same way no matter what state they lived in.
In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In almost all cases, the outcome in each state was determined less by how much they varied from that persistent pattern than by how much of each group was present in the state’s electorate to begin with.
The continued nationalization of American politics threatens greater polarization and social tension as the lines harden between these two distinct political coalitions. But paradoxically, it means that the party that can generate the most exceptions to these solidifying trends may be the one most likely to control Congress and the White House.
Viewed by age, the results offered a vivid portrait of the price Republicans are paying among younger voters as Trump redefines the party in his confrontational image.
The exit poll measuring preferences in House elections found that Democrats carried fully two thirds of voters aged 18-29. That was their best showing with them in exit polls since at least 1986 (narrowly exceeding their level even in former President Barack Obama’s sweeping 2008 victory) and a big improvement on Hillary Clinton’s 55% among them in 2016. And preliminary calculations indicate that youth turnout may have been half again as large in 2018 as it was in 2014, the most recent midterm.
Even more striking was the consistency of the Democratic advantage around the nation. The Democratic candidate won voters aged 18-29 in all 21 Senate races with an exit poll except for Indiana, where Joe Donnelly tied Republican Mike Braun. (These figures do not include the exit poll in California, where two Democrats ran against each other after claiming the top spots in last June’s state top-two primary.) Senate Democrats carried about three-fifths or more of these younger voters in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota (both for incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, who was elected in a special election), Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Democrats also reached at least 60% with them in governor’s races in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In the California governor’s race, Democrat Gavin Newsom carried 69% of younger voters.
Just as important, the Democratic advantage extended up the age ladder. Against Trump in 2016, Clinton carried only 51% of voters aged 30-44; while Trump won just 41% of them, a substantial 8% scattered to third-party candidates.
This time, those voters consolidated behind Democrats. In the national House exit poll, Democrats won 58%. The margins weren’t always as large in the Senate races with exit polls. But every Democratic Senate candidate carried the voters in this age group except for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. In states from Pennsylvania, Minnesota (both races) and Wisconsin to Florida and Nevada, Democrats carried about three-fifths of these voters. (The Arizona exit poll results combined voters aged 18-44: Democrat Kyrsten Sinema carried 59% of the combined group.)
Republicans in turn consistently performed better with older voters — though with a surprising crack in their armor. In the national House exit poll, voters aged 45-64 split almost exactly evenly between the two parties. But Republicans won them, often convincingly, in most of the closely contested Senate races, including Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. That group of older workers, often described as the “anxious generation” facing the final years before retirement, has emerged as a key Republican constituency.
The results among seniors, though, were competitive. About four-fifths of today’s seniors are white and they have moved right…
