Tuesday was a bad day for Donald Trump. His former lawyer Michael Cohen accused the president of joining in what prosecutors might see as a conspiracy to violate elections laws, and his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was convicted of eight federal felonies and appears headed for prison.
What happens next?
What has Trump been accused of?
One significant new accusation against Trump emerged on Tuesday. In open court, Cohen said that “in coordination with, and at the direction of, a candidate for federal office” he had made hush agreements with two women “for the principal purpose of influencing the election”.
The hush money agreements amounted to an illegal corporate donation made directly to a candidate and an illegally large individual donation. The extent of Trump’s involvement was made plain by charging documents which described how Cohen submitted false invoices so that Trump could reimburse him for the payments.
As Cohen’s lawyer, Lanny Davis, said in a statement afterwards: “If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?”
Will Trump face some kind of criminal charge?
Probably not. Past justice department guidance has held that a sitting president may not be indicted for a crime, and Trump’s legal team has said (caveat lector) that special counsel Robert Mueller had assured them he would follow that guidance.
Trump could theoretically be indicted upon leaving office, but historically in the US there has not been much appetite for prosecuting former presidents.
What happens now?
The worst scenario for Trump would be for Democrats to gain control of congress in the November midterm elections, and start up corruption investigations possibly including impeachment hearings. Basically, Trump’s fate is in the hands of voters.
Will the public grow disgusted with the president as he sides with convicted felons such as Manafort who declined to pay taxes on millions in overseas income while buying ostrich jackets and extravagant antique carpets? Or will they get sick of being blatantly lied to by the president to their faces?
Or, on the other hand, will that crucial sliver of potentially wavering Trump supporters agree with the president that it’s all a “witch-hunt”?
“Let’s remember that this is ultimately about Congress and not the courts,” tweeted Eric Columbus, a senior lawyer in the justice department during the Barack Obama years. “Anyone who thinks Trump will face…
