(CNN)The 2018 election is in 105 days. And the playing field continues to tilt toward Democrats.
On Tuesday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia moved 17(!) House seats in Democrats’ favor — eight of which went from a “leans Republican” rating to a “toss-up.” That means that of the 36 races rated as “toss-ups” by the Center of Politics, 34 are held by Republicans. Remember that Democrats only need a 23-seat pickup to regain the majority they lost in 2010.
“Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House,” concludes Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of UVA professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.” He adds later: “At this point, we see the Democrats with slightly better odds to get their required share of the ‘toss-ups’ based largely on the environment, but also because they appear to have well-funded and credible challengers in these districts that can capitalize on that environment.”
These moves are broadly consistent with how other non-partisan handicappers see the current state of play. The Cook Political Report carries 34 seats that are either “toss-ups” or lean toward party that doesn’t currently control the seat; 31 of those are GOP districts. Inside Elections sees 26 Republican-held seats in serious jeopardy as compared to just 5 for Democrats. In CNN’s own ratings, there are 43 Republican-held seats in serious jeopardy as compared to six Democratic-held seats.
It’s reflective of polling from swing districts. Take Pennsylvania’s 17th District in the southwestern part of the state where Reps. Conor Lamb (D) and Keith Rothfus (R) are facing off. Even though…
