Politics Is Fluid, the Sun Rises in the East

President Trump greets supporters at a rally in Moon Township, Pa., March 10, 2018.

Mairead notes a Reuters-Ipsos poll that shows, among other things, that “in the last two years, Millennial support for Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot dropped around 9 percentage points, to 46 percent.” Per the research, one big reason for the change is the economy: “The same young voters,” Mairead records, “are almost evenly split on the question of which party takes better care of the economy, with 34 percent favoring Democrats compared to 32 percent favoring Republicans — a twelve-point jump for the GOP since 2016.”

This, I think, is interesting. Not because it suggests that the GOP is in for a glorious mid-term season. It’s not. And not because it provides a good reason for the GOP to wave away its problems with the young; per the same poll, just 28 percent of Millennials back the GOP. Rather, it’s interesting because it demonstrates that our politics remains as fluid as ever.

Sometimes, we forget this. President Trump is currently being criticized for suggesting that the Democratic party’s growing enthusiasm for de facto open borders is the product of its belief that more immigration will lead to more Democratic victories. As usual, some of the criticism is warranted; Trump seems only to have a sledgehammer in his arsenal and is manifestly incapable of nuance of any kind. But he’s not entirely wrong. There is a strand of progressive thought — a growing strand, I’d venture — that holds that the Left’s long-term victory is all but assured by the passage of time. In this view, all progressives have to do in order to take and keep power is wait for their opponents to die. In this view, conservatism is the philosophy of the old and the white and the male, and, as America becomes more brown and the elderly slowly disappear, so too will their creed. Young people tend to be Democrats, and so do non-whites. Before long, then, a supermajority is surely inevitable.

Right?

Eh. The problem with this view is…

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